The 2012 Iron Bowl: Pending blowout or sucker’s bet?

Alabama comes into the 2012 Iron Bowl with a 10-1 record and a chance to play for both the Southeastern Conference and BCS Championship. Auburn limps in with a 3-8 record and a chance to watch its hated rival go for an unprecedented BCS repeat. The Tide is a prohibitive favorite – SportsBetting.ag has the Tide as a 31-point favorite. History says that the better team almost always wins the Iron Bowl. There have been few upsets and it’s typically a well played game.

Could this year be a repeat of last season’s 42-14 beatdown? Or could it be another “scare” like the 2009 26-21 squeaker?

Look at the history of the series. The average margin of victory is about 15 points. In the BCS era, the margin is 12.5. Only once in the BCS era has the margin of victory been more than 30 points, and that was Tommy Tuberville’s 36-0 swansong loss in 2008. Last year was 28 points and the next widest margin is 24 points, which came in the 31-7 2001 “apply the silencer” shocker.

Every other game since 1998 has been within two touchdowns. With Auburn this bad and Alabama this good, what’s the likelihood that this game turns out to be a bit closer than everyone thinks?

Rivalry games are emotional. In a rivalry this heated, this bitter and this intense, the rivals’ adrenaline lasts a little longer than the first quarter.

Most off the players in this game are from the state of Alabama. They probably played against each other in high school and may have even played against each other in pee wee leagues. Their families know each other. They’ve gone to the same churches, the same schools and played on the same playgrounds. Sooner or later the two teams will settle in and just play football, but this game is always a little more intense than other rivalries.

Another indication that this game might be a bit closer than the betting line has it is that this could be Gene Chizik’s last game as the Auburn head coach. He’s only two years removed from an undefeated season and a national title but in big boy football, it’s always “what have you done for me lately?” The players on the Auburn team know this. The coaches who recruited them and coached them every day in practice might be gone by sunrise Sunday morning. There’s an incentive to play a little harder, run a little faster and hold those blocks a little longer.

On the other hand, there’s also the incentive to just mail it in and get this dreadful season over with.

Alabama’s motivation is the real key here, isn’t it? Knowing what’s at stake—state bragging rights, a berth in the SEC Championship game and BCS title hopes—they’ve got the greater incentive. And when was the last time a Nick Saban coached team took such a big game so lightly? Saban’s losses have rarely been in big games, and there’s no bigger game on either team’s regular season schedule than the Iron Bowl.

Again, history says that Alabama should win this one. The teams’ bodies of work over the season suggest it will be a blowout. But history suggests it may be otherwise.

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Les Miles apologizes ... but why?

LSU Coach Les Miles apologizes for language in Saturday's press conference

Published on The Times-Picayune - NOLA.com | shared via feedly

LSU Coach Les Miles opened his weekly "Lunch with Les" press conference Monday by apologizing for coarse language he used in Saturday's press conference following the Tigers' 41-35 victory over Ole Miss. "I first would like to ask your indulgence for my choice of language Saturday night after the game," Miles said. "I thought it was impertinent and poor. It's not something that I want to repeat."

...

 "Just so you know I'm proud of those men, how frickin' easy it would have been to say it's their (Ole Miss') night," Miles said Saturday after the Tigers' emotional win. He followed that with a repeat of "how (frickin') easy" except that he used the obscenity for which "frickin'" is often substituted. He followed that utterance with "excuse my language."
...

"The opportunity for me to talk about my senior class and let them know their contribution is greatly respected and that in no way can an article written by somebody that operates outside our building have any real effect or any legitimacy in terms of an opinion," Miles said. "I took a broad stroke there and kind of spoke to that."

Mash.

Coaches are known to be salty on the sidelines. They're also prone to outbursts in postgame press conferences, especially after an emotional win in the last home game of the season.

Yeah, Miles' language in the presser was a little overboard, but it's Les Miles. Why should he apologize for being who we thought he was?


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Virginia Tech talking SEC?

Hokie AD's SEC comments cause fit to hit Twitter shan

Published on CollegeFootballTalk | shared via feedly

And then there’s Jim Weaver.  The Virginia Tech athletic director, normally not one to verbally shoot from the hip, preferring to keep his athletic department’s cards close to the vest, caused quite the Twitter stir late Tuesday night with comments that may or may not have been taken out of context.

During a weekly call-in show on 101.7-FM in Southwest Virginia, Weaver was asked, David Teal of the Hampton Roads Daily Press wrote, “whether he thought the SEC would contact Tech if it wanted to start its own network.”

“I really haven’t thought about it because the discussion has just come about three or four days ago,” Weaver began, before adding, “I’d like to defer my comment for right now, but there may potentially be some interest.”

Things that make you go "hmmm."

Weaver quickly walked back his comments, saying that he was misinterpreted and taken out of context, but what he said couldn't been any clearer and you can't unring such a loud a bell.

Virginia Tech has long been thought to be a good fit for the SEC, in geography, demographics, media markets and style of play in football. With the conference realignment bug going epidemic again, the SEC is sure to be a player for bigger programs seeking a sense of stability and the ACC's media deal looks kinda pekid when compared to the SEC.

This bears watching.

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Morning Six Pack: November 21, 2012

It’s only Wednesday, but it feels like Black Friday already. Do a little shopping, then check out these six college football stories from around the country.

Coaches’ organization honors a Tide assistant

The American Football Coaches Association has named Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart as the organization’s assistant coach of the year.

Rutgers’s Move Offers Many Potential Upsides

Besides the added income from playing in an elite conference with its own television network, joining the Big Ten could help the Scarlet Knights’ recruiting.

Here’s Brutus Buckeye Reenacting The Chattahoochee Video

Did you know? The Ohio State University has a waterskiing club, and college mascot Brutus Buckeye is a member. Two questions:1. Is it cost effective to wear that in the lake, and 2. Is there any footage of him joining the Ohio State Beekeepers?

Mason close to 1,000 yards

Tre Mason has been by far the most productive running back for Auburn this season. Mason, a sophomore, has 150 carries for 920 yards with eight touchdowns, which accounts for more than half of Auburn's 1,689 rushing yards this season.

Source: Duke, David Cutcliffe agree to contract extension

According to the report, the deal could be done as early as today and should be completed this week, and would run through the 2018 season.

Quotable:

But a funny thing happened in 2012. The SEC split itself neatly, if not quite evenly, into two divisions, a fierce Gang of Six, three in each division, and a less-imposing Knitting Circle of Eight. While it's easy (and not unfair) to say that you can't play hypotheticals, there is one mathematical fact in the SEC. Every time a team from that Group of Six has played one of the other eight, it has won. Every single time. The record for the Haves vs. The Have-Nots is a perfect 27-0, and unless Auburn, Arkansas or Missouri can pull a big upset this weekend, it will end up at 30-0. So a fair argument can be made that the more non-Top Six teams you played (to be fair, some were pretty good teams such as Mississippi State and Vanderbilt), the better off you were. Proof in the pudding? The two teams that didn't draw a big-time cross-divisional opponent were Alabama and Georgia. Which two teams will, barring a big upset by Auburn, wind up in Atlanta? Alabama and Georgia.

Look a little deeper. If the division titles were settled only by intradivisional play - the Steve Spurrier Suggestion from the spring - true chaos would be upon us. Both divisions would have three-way ties at the top (again, assuming the favorites win this weekend) with identical 5-1 records. But LSU, Texas A&M and South Carolina all lost to tough cross-division opponents. Florida won two such games but had to play Georgia on the heels of playing LSU and South Carolina, and lost head-to-head to the Bulldogs. Alabama fans, of course, will say the Crimson Tide could have beaten Florida and South Carolina as easily as it rolled past Missouri and Tennessee, but ask LSU fans if they would like to swap schedules and see.

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Wish I'd thought of this: 9 Keys to Alabama beating Auburn on Saturday

Great stuff from CapstoneReport.com. I sure wish I'd thought of this:

9 Keys to Alabama beating Auburn on Saturday

Published on Capstone Report | shared via feedly

With the annual showdown with Auburn now just a few days away, much is at stake for the Crimson Tide in the matchup. Win and go on to face Georgia for a play-in game to another BCS National Championship berth. Lose and go to the Capital One bowl.

Here are nine keys to Alabama winning this game:

1. Control Jake Holland. Don't let the dynamic Auburn middle linebacker control the defensive tempo of the game with his better than average quickness and lateral speed. Don't let his poor tackling and slow reactions fool you. This guy is a player who, if you're standing still, can put you on the turf in a relative hurry. If you don't know where Jake Holland is at all times, there's somewhat of a chance he could possibly disrupt a slow developing play.

2. Take the Auburn crowd out of the game early. 1,000 fans may not seem like much, but they can really make a racket if Bama doesn't take control of this game from the get-go. Consequently, that number includes the Tiger band and football team, but still, that's a lot of people screaming all at once. Gotta take them out.

It only gets better, so mash here for the rest.

CapstoneReport.com is a treasure of the Bama Nation.

Fans campaigning to bring a state flag to the Iron Bowl

Some Alabama fans have started an interesting campaign—they want the University of Alabama to lay claim to the Alabama state flag, and they want you to support the movement by bringing the banner to Saturday’s Iron Bowl game in Tuscaloosa.

Here’s the link.

As my friend Champ Allen on TiderInsider.com writes:

“I like it. We're one of the few state schools that really don't embrace being the "state" team. LSU has it's state flag on their helmets. USCe uses the palmetto tree logo. Ole Miss has a state map decal on their helmets. Tennessee runs out behind their state flag. Would be pretty cool if we had either the state flag or the state map decal on the back of our helmets. I'd hoped that we would've done that following 4/27/11 but we didn't. At worst, it's a great marketing strategy…”

The campaign organizer describes the cause as “a movement that will hopefully result in us claiming our crimson and white State Flag as a larger part of the Bama fandom. Bring one with you to the game!”

I like it, too. Alabama is the flagship university in the state. Other schools in the state may chafe under the yoke of this fact but it doesn’t make it untrue. The colors of the school and the colors on the flag are identical and the flag could easily be displayed as a helmet decal.

The only problem I see with this is that the University diligently protects its trademarks, and incorporating imagery that can’t be trademarked might present problems the school doesn’t want to deal with.

But that doesn’t mean fans can’t show support for the state and the school on Saturday, so… bring a flag to the game.

(Bryant Denny does not allow flagpoles, though.)

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Morning Six Pack: November 20, 2012

Six cold, clear, crisp and refreshing college football stories from around the country.

Bowl projections: Upsets alter BCS outlook

No. 2 Oregon's BCS title hopes were soured in its upset loss to No. 14 Stanford. But the Cardinal might have wrapped up a BCS bowl berth.

Brandon Jenkins leaving the ‘Noles for the NFL

In the first of what will be myriad announcements from now until mid-January, one of the top players at his position has decided to take his talents to the professional ranks.

Chad Bumphis Enjoying Breakout Year at Mississippi State

Mississippi State receiver Chad Bumphis is enjoying a superb senior season for the 8-3 Bulldogs and living up to the vast potential that preceded his arrival from Tupelo.

No Peace: Conference Realignment Revs Up Again

Just when it looked as if there would be peace, that the conferences were done realigning, the Big Ten struck another blow that will send shock waves across the country.

Dashing through college football's latest BCS title scenarios, rivalry weekend and more

With two weekends left and plenty of teams still alive, The Dash breaks down every possible scenario.

Quotable:

“I personally think Gene Chizik has done a really good job,” Saban said Monday. “All I know is playing against him, it’s always a tough game. They’re always well-coached and they’re always well-prepared.”

…

“Derek Dooley is a good friend,” Saban said. “He’s been very, very loyal for seven years working on our staff. Regardless of what he did or didn’t do at Tennessee, he’s still someone who is a professional colleague and a good friend who we would love to help in any way we can.”

…

“I fully understand that two years from now, if we don’t continue to have a good team, then I’ll be in the same seat that other people are in now,” he said. “It’s the nature of the beast in our profession.”

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Iron Bowl Week: The obligatory David Housel rant

It wouldn’t be right not to post this. It’s former Auburn AD ranting about the Iron Bowl rivalry. In it, he’s heard comparing a sports rivalry to the Vietnam War and drawing parallels between the University of Alabama and Nazi Germany.

No, really.

This is Little Brotheritis at it’s absolute creepiest.

Full transcript follows the clip.

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I, like you, have read everything, I’ve heard everything, and I’ve seen everything. Now the time has come, the time has come to decide who we are, what we are, and what we’re going to do.

You Alabama fans listening in to see what we’re saying, how we’re feeling, how we’re thinking – how about giving us a moment alone, just us Auburn people, so we can talk among ourselves. Would you do us that favor? We’d appreciate it. Take a break, go to the bathroom, get another beer, do whatever you want to do, I don’t care. Just give us Auburn people a moment alone.

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Well, now that we’re alone what do you think? Ah, I know they’re still there, I know they’re still there listening in on what we’re saying, but so be it. I’m not scared of them and you’re not scared of them either, not since coach dye came, none of us have been scared of them anymore, none of us. If they weren’t scared of us, they wouldn’t still be listening in and thinking we didn’t know they were there.

Funny thing is they probably thought we were stupid enough to think they would leave when we asked them to leave. They’re the ones with the problem, not us. In fact I want them to hear what we’re saying and what we’re talking about. I want them to know what we’re thinking, they need to know, and when they find out, they won’t sleep good tonight, tomorrow night, any night. We’re coming after their butt. We’re coming after them today, we’re coming after them tomorrow, we’re coming after them the day after tomorrow, and the day after that, and the day after that.

We will not rest, we won’t sleep, we will not be deterred until we reach our goal, and that goal is simply this: to paint this state – the entire state – not North Alabama, not South Alabama, not East Alabama, not West Alabama, the entire state, orange and blue. Now Terry Bowden and I didn’t always agree, and we didn’t always see eye to eye on everything, but we did agree on one thing. We might not get them, the Alabama mamas and papas, but we were going to get the sons and the daughters. We were going to get the children, and we are getting them. Birminghan was once their bastion, their home ground, their turf. Lookat the statistics. Statistics don’t lie. Birmingham and Jefferson County students are coming to Auburn as never before.

We’re winning the battle there, and we’re winning the battle everywhere else. Take a snapshot here, take a snapshot there and it might not be evident. But in your heart, in your heart of hearts, you know we’re winning the battle, and you know we’re winning the war. Where are their sons and daughters going to school? Think about your Alabama friends and the number of their children who are coming to Auburn. Inch by inch, person by person, child by child we’re winning the war. It might not be evident in every battle, and it may or may not be evident today, but we’re winning the war.

All we have to do is keep the faith and keep on fighting. Every day in every way in every arena. The future is ours. All we have to do is fight for it and take it. Keeping the faith, that’s the key. And I don’t want to get anybody mad, and I don’t want to offend anybody, but think about the Vietnam War. Think about it in the context of the Alabama-Auburn rivalry. Time and time again we Americans claimed victory. We read about it in the paper, we heard about it on television, we beat ourselves on the chest.

And what did it get us? In the little things and the hearts of the people? That’s where wars are won and lost, and we’re winning this war with Alabama, just as sure as you hear the sound of my voice, we’re winning it. You know it and they know it.

That’s what will keep them awake tonight, that’s what will keep them awake in the nights to come. Winston Churchill, he of the Auburn heart said it best, “Never, never, never give up. We will fight on the land, we will fight on the sea, we will fight in the air, we will fight until Hitler and his Nazis are driven from the face of the earth.”

Now I’m not comparing Alabama to Hitler and the Nazis. Not at all. There are many good Alabama people, and I have many good Alabama friends, at least a few, and I have great respect for them and their program for what they’ve accomplished down through the years. But this is not about them, this is about us: who we are, what we are, and what we are going to do.

We are going to fight them today, we are going to fight them tomorrow. We’re going to fight them every day and every way. We won’t win all the battles, but we’re going to win the war. You Alabama fans out there, still listening in, eavesdropping voyeurs that you are, lurking there in the deep, dark shadows of radioland, you can bank on it. We’re going to win the war. Remember Dunkirk, the gallant British army was virtually driven into the sea. That was but one battle. It was a long, long war as this has been, and will continue to be, a long, long war.

No, this is not about you. This is about us, the Auburn people. And this is a call to arms. Today, tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, the day after that, and the day after that. We will fight until victory is ours.

And as for today, Coach Jordan said it best, and that’s beat hell out of the University of Alabama. We will fight until the victory is ours. We may get knocked down, but we will not be knocked out. We will get up and fight again. We may occasionally be downhearted, but we will not be defeated. Never.

It is not in our nature, not in our makeup, it is not in our heart and it is not in our soul. Remember Goliath, remember the Roman Empire, remember Ozymandias. Learn from them, my Alabama friends. Learn from them and prepare to join them. No, Ozymandias was not Ozzie Nelson’s cousin.

Now go listen to Eli. He’s a good man, he’ll tell you who Ozymandias was. Back to you, Paul. Let’s get it on.

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Miami self-imposes second straight bowl ban

Miami self-imposes second straight bowl ban

Published on ESPN.com - College Football | shared via feedly

Miami is self-imposing a postseason ban for the second straight year in response to a lengthy and ongoing NCAA investigation into the school's compliance practices. 

Miami's decision effectively ends the ACC's Coastal Division race; Georgia Tech will play Florida State for the ACC crown and an Orange Bowl berth. 

Mash here.

If you are Al Golden, how much longer do you stick around, waiting for the NCAA to lower the boom and impose crippling sanctions that prevent you from being competitive for the better part of a decade?

There are big coaching jobs opening in the SEC, at programs that are already stocked with talent and with pockets much deeper than those in Coral Gables. Oh, and those programs have state of the art facilities and fanbases that actually show up for football games. It helps when the school has a stadium right there on campus.

Arkansas, Tennessee covet Jon Gruden

The NFL Today: Arkansas, Tennessee want Jon Gruden

Published on CBSSports.com | shared via feedly

Former Buccaneers and Raiders coach Jon Gruden has been one of the most coveted coaching candidates since leaving the game for the broadcast booth after the 2008 season, and has been approached by multiple NFL owners and universities in recent years, with Arkansas and Tennessee of the SEC ranking as the latest to covet him.

...

League sources said Gruden has made calls identifying possible staff members with his focus seeming more on the college game, asking questions of those potential staffers about recruiting and issues that do not relate to pro football. Numerous sources who have talked to him in recent weeks came away with the impression that Gruden was more serious about return to coaching now than at any time since he was fired by the Bucs after the 2008 season, although it still would have to be a perfect situation to lure him from his current job at ESPN, where he is well compensated and gets to have a fairly normal family life. While coaching in the NFL, Gruden was notorious for his maniacal approach to coaching, in a nearly round-the-clock fashion. Gruden was 95-81 in 10 seasons with five playoff appearances as head coach of the Raiders and Bucs (1998-2008) but did not win a playoff game after leading Tampa Bay to the Super Bowl after the 2002 season.

We've gone over this terrain before, haven't we?

In each of the previous episodes of Gruden to [Insert Hopeful School Here], the "sources close to" people involved in the coaching search were connected to the schools themselves, or at least claimed to be.

This installment has a different texture to it, as Jason La Canfora is an NFL insider and cites league sources rather than those connected to the college game. This doesn't mean that Gruden finally makes the move and takes a college football job, but the fact that a whole different group of people are talking about it makes it a lot more interesting.

La Canfora mentions all the reasons why Gruden might move to Knoxville or Fayetteville. Family. Fat contract. Big time booster support.

But La Canfora doesn't mention the several million reasons why he wouldn't.

"I said I want to get good at this," Gruden said while preparing for the prime-time game at the New Jersey Meadowlands between the Dolphins and Jets. "I was serious about this from the day I started it and I am serious about wanting to get good at it.

"I spent 26 or 27 years in coaching, 18 of them in the NFL. I want to focus on this and get better every day."

Gruden has earned two Sports Emmy Award nominations for his work in the "Monday Night Football" booth, where he is joined by play-by-play commentator Mike Tirico and analyst Ron Jaworski.

"This is my team," Gruden said. "I loved doing this with these guys, keeping me close to the game. We have a lot of fun and hey, we love football."