Rare, late season Tropical Storm Tomas forms

You can get the latest official forecast—and plots of the global forecast models used by the National Hurricane Center—at the Tropical Update Page.

Right now, most of the forecasts have the storm just south of Jamaica by Wednesday of next week.  After that, the models agree that the storm will be picked up by the trough currently off the East Coast.

We’ve been extraordinarily fortunate this year. Tomas is the 20th named storm of the season, but we haven’t had a single major storm make landfall in the continental US.

Warnings go up along the Gulf Coast

Watches and warnings are going up along the Gulf Coast with the 11:00 am CDT advisory.  Everything from Barataria Bay to Ft. Walton Beach are in the cone of despair.  Looks like a fun weekend...

New model guidance continues to cluster and be consistent in forecasting landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi sometime Sunday.  This puts the nasty northwest quadrant of the system along the Mississippi, Alabama and NW Florida coasts.

Gimme some feedback in the comments.

Bonnie aiming right for da slick!

Here's the latest on what has become Tropical Storm Bonnie. Bonnie was upgraded at 11:00 EDT tonight. Click on the image for a larger view.

All of the model guidance has the system moving through the Gulf fairly rapidly, reaching the area of the Macondo well sometime late Saturday night. Accordingly, Admiral Allen has ordered the site evacuated, with the vessels operating the ROV's the last to leave.

Gimme some feedback in the comments.

Trouble in the Tropics--Update

Here's the current position of the low pressure system in the Caribbean, along with plots of the latest long range forecasts.  The model guidance is tightly clustered (except for two outliers). The guidance suggests that the system will pass through Straits of Florida and enter the Gulf over the weekend.  There is a strong likelihood that it could develop into a Hurricane before reaching the central Gulf Coast.

This will almost certainly result in an evacuation of the surface fleet at the Deepwater Horizon site, with orders likely coming today.

Clicking the image displays a larger view.

UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center is initiating coverage of the system as a Tropical Depression, with watches and warnings going up at 11:00 am EDT. New model outputs won't be available until later this afternoon.

Gimme some feedback in the comments.