US to normalize diplomatic relations with Cuba. Democrats can kiss Florida goodbye for 2016

This is no small tremor. This is quake with a magnitude of 8.5 on the Richter Scale. As somebody who previously lived and worked in South Florida for years, I can attest to two irrefutable truths: One, that the large Cuban expatriate community in that part of the state bitterly opposes any normalization of relations with the Castro regime. Two, that anyone (or party) who proposes or moves forward with such “progress” will be punished on the first Tuesday in November.

Ms. Clinton, Ms. Warren, or any other Democrat seeking the presidency in 2016 can officially kiss the state of Florida goodbye.

In a nutshell, US contractor Alan Gross, who has been jailed on espionage charges for nearly six years, is being released by the Castro regime in exchange for three Cuban nationals convicted of spying on anti-Castro activists in Florida. The Obama regime claims that this is a humanitarian exchange, but let there be no doubt: this is no quid pro quo deal in any way, shape or form.

Contrary to what Ed at HotAir.com believes, the Cuban ex-pat community in Florida is monolithically opposed to any actions that take pressure off of the banana republic regime that has enslaved millions, jailed thousands and continues to oppress the Cuban people. If they were predisposed to violent uprisings (they’re not), the ex-pats could make the Ferguson riots look like a peace march.

Back to my point of the post’s title, it’s important to note that two men of Cuban descent are considering a run at the White House in 2016. These are Senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida. Another man considering a run is former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, a man that the Cuban ex-pat community named an “Honorary Cuban” in 2007.

Expect all three of these distinguished gentlemen to denounce today’s developments, and if one of them should gain the GOP nomination, the monolithic Cuban ex-pat electorate south of I-4 will crawl naked over broken glass to vote for the guy who opposes normalized relations with the regime that has bloodied and impoverished one of the most beautiful islands in the Caribbean..

Update: right on cue:

Rubio says he'll "make every effort to block this dangerous and desperate attempt" to remake US relationship w Cuba. He'll be in majority...

— Rick Klein (@rickklein) December 17, 2014

Update: And Mr. Bush:

"I don't think we should be negotiating with a repressive regime to make changes in our relationship [until Cuba changes]," Bush said at an event in Florida on Wednesday morning,according to USA Today. 

Meek: Bill Clinton didn’t ask me to drop out. It was… Charlie Crist

Heh.

What else will Charlie Crist try in his desperate attempt to remain relevant?

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The Democrat running in a 3-way Florida Senate race has a message: Bubba did not tell me to back down.

Rep. Kendrick Meek vehemently denied reports that former President Bill Clinton tried to persuade him to drop out, insisting that it was really Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running as an independent.

But Clinton's spokesman told Politico that the former president convinced Meek twice to abandon the race and endorse Crist.

Polls show that Meek is trailing behind. The logic behind the withdrawal is that it could swing liberal votes to Crist, giving him a better shot at taking on GOP front-runner Marco Rubio.

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Crist has also been chatting up the White House. There’s only one chip that Crist is bargaining with in his backroom, secret discussions with in his state and national Democrats.  If he wins, he’ll caucus with the Democrats.

I’m frankly disgusted with any moderate Republicans who still back Crist.  There can’t be many, but there have to be a few.  What are they thinking?

I think most of Crist’s “support” is actually coming from the far left Democrat base, who will be puking their guts out when Rubio wins the three-way race with an outright majority.

Although Meek himself is a liberal who embraced Obama’s sweeping socialist agenda, I find it equally disgusting that the left would abandon their principles and vote for Crist just to keep Rubio out. As disgusting as it is, it’s deeply ironic that the left is abandoning principle and breaking for Crist, who abandoned his principles to stay relevant.

Birds of a feather.

THIS is Charlie Crist’s “major announcement?”

Former Headline: Charlie Crist to make “major announcement?”

An update to this morning’s post.

Tune in at 10:30 EDT, live from Deerfield Beach.  Allahpundit wonders what the shifty bastidge is up to.

There’s apparently no way Crist can win with Meek in the race.  Likewise, there’s no path for Meek to win with Crist in the race.

  The skinny:

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The average of recent polls compiled by Pollster.com shows Rubio pulling 43.6 percent support, Crist 28.4 percent and Meek with 21.4 percent, suggesting the only real contest is whether Crist or Meek finishes in second place.

Meanwhile, an automated poll released Tuesday by Public Policy Polling found that if Meek dropped out, Crist and Rubio would be tied at 46 percent, but if Crist dropped out, Rubio would lead Meek 48 percent to 41 percent. With the current field, the poll showed Rubio with 44 percent support, compared to 33 for Crist and 21 for Rubio. Among Democrats, Crist and Meek were effectively tied, while Crist had 14 percent of Republicans and 50 percent of independents.

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Possibilities:

He announces that he’s bowing out and endorsing Meek.

He announces that he’s bowing out and endorsing…  Rubio.

He announces that he’s in it to win it, and that if he does win it, he’ll caucus with the Democrats and help re-elect Harry Reid as Majority Leader (assuming Reid beats Angle, no sure thing).

My sense—he’s going to announce that NASA and the Chilean Government have teamed up to send a rescue capsule down to get him out of the hole he’s been in since announcing an independent bid for the Florida Senate seat.

I’m on the edge of my seat.

UPDATE:  This?  This is the “major announcement” that kept political junkies tossing and turning through the night?

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ST. PETERSBURG – Governor Charlie Crist, independent candidate for the United States Senate, will greet voters and receive the endorsement of prominent environmentalist and Democratic leader Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. The support of the son of the former Democratic presidential candidate, and nephew of the former President and Senator, represents yet another step toward Crist building the winning coalition of Democrats, Republicans, and independents require to defeat Tea Party extremist [sic].

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It changes nothing.  Crist still can’t win with Meek in the race, and Meek still can’t win with Crist in the race.

Rubio beats 'em both.

Florida primary election results show that GOP voters are fired up

Jim Geraghty touched on this last night, but with the 99% tallies in, it's worth a closer look.

First, let’s look at the Florida Governor’s race, which had two high-profile candidates duking it out in an expensive, brutal primary campaign on the GOP side and a less intense race on the Democrat side.

Republican
Rick Scott	595,484	46%
Bill McCollum	557,455	43%
Mike McCalister	130,059	10%
Total	1,282,998
Democrat
Alex Sink	664,063	77%
Brian Moore	199,918	23%
Total	863,981

An argument could be made that the vote total difference —419,017 —was due to the high profile nature of the GOP campaign.  Rick Scott spent $30 million of his own money; McCollum had the financial support and backing of the party apparatus. But that argument doesn’t hold up too well when you look at the other major statewide races yesterday.  Let’s look at the Attorney General’s race, next:

Republican
Pam Bondi	455,069	38%
Jeff Kottkamp	394,752	33%
Holly Benson	351,508	29%
Total	1,201,329
Democrat
Dan Gelber	486,962	59%
Dave Aronberg	337,633	41%
Total	824,595

The difference between GOP and Democrat turnout in this election is on the same order of magnitude as the Governor’s race, in this case 376,734 votes, as is the total turnout for both major parties.  This was nowhere near as much of a high-profile primary election as the Governor’s race, yet turnout and turnout differential are about the same.

Last of all of the major statewide elections is the Florida Senate primary:

Republican
* Marco Rubio	1,059,546	85%
William Kogut	111,590	9%
William Escoffery	81,875	7%
Total	1,253,011
Democrat
* Kendrick Meek	523,106	57%
Jeff Greene	283,497	31%
Glenn Burkett	59,587	7%
Maurice Ferre	44,508	5%
Total	910,698

In this race the GOP winner Marco Rubio garnered more votes than the entire field of the Democrats candidates, combined,  and the difference between total GOP turnout and turnout in the Democrat race is 342,313.  There was a higher total turnout in this race than the other two, and the difference is less than the other two.  These figures are still in the same neighborhood though, and these three races demonstrate a pretty clear pattern. In the three major statewide races, each shows a similar proportion of Republican vs. Democrat votes in the primary, with vote totals and differences consistent across all three.

There are similar patterns in US House of Representative races as well, with Republicans outnumbering Democrats in a handful of key races.

The only conclusions that can be reached is that Republican voters in Florida are more motivated than their Democrat counterparts, and since primary voters are the ones most likely to return to the polls for the general election, it’s safe to say that Florida is setting up as a 2010 battleground that Republicans look very likely to win, and win big.

All election results come from this site.

Gimme some feedback in the comments.

PPP Survey shows Crist’s house of cards is falling…

… and the primary ballots haven’t even been counted yet.  If, as recent polls suggest, Democrat Kendrick Meeks bests fellow Democrat Jeff Greene in today’s Florida Primary, Crist is in trouble right out of the gate.

The latest Public Policy Polling report:

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Democrats will get their stronger candidate if Kendrick Meek wins the Florida Senate primary tonight as expected-but the biggest winner coming out of the primary may be Marco Rubio. PPP finds he would begin the general election in the lead at 40%, followed by Charlie Crist at 32%, and Meek at 17%. If Jeff Greene were somehow able to pull off the upset tonight it would be much closer with Rubio at 37%, Crist at 36%, and Greene at only 13%.

PPP's last poll of the race in mid-July found Crist in the lead at 35% to 29% for Rubio and 17% for Meek. Two major developments have shifted the race in Rubio's direction though. The first is that Democrats are now going for Meek 39-38 where before they were going for Crist 44-35. As Democrats have gotten to know Meek over the course of the primary campaign they've generally decided they like him and that's cut into Crist's support for the general election.

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Though they bristle at this being said, Public Policy Polling tends to lean a little to the left (ok, a little more than a little), so producing figures that show strength in Rubio’s support indicates that the house of cards Crist used to make his decision to turn independent coat is being blown apart.

An 8-point hole coming out of the gate is going to be difficult to overcome, especially in a three-way race.  Partisan voters aren’t going to abandon either Rubio or Meek for Crist, who Rubio is successfully painting as untrustworthy political opportunist.  

It leaves a bloc of mushy, middle-of-the road moderates, and all three candidates will make a run at them.  It could fall any of three ways, but the smart money is on the conservative-leaning moderates backing Rubio; the liberal-leaning moderates backing Meek and  Crist caught in the middle.

Go read the whole report, especially the PDF link at the end.  PPP leans left, but at least they explain the method behind their madness.

Gimme some feedback in the comments.

If Florida is a “bellwether/swing” state, it has some bad news for Democrats

Is Florida seen as a bellwether state?  Could you reasonably say that, as Florida goes, so goes the nation?  If so, it's not providing encouraging news for Democrats. A new poll from Mason-Dixon Polling & Research provides even more evidence of 1994-ish hope and change:

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The state's sagging economy and skepticism over the effects of the federal stimulus plan are resulting in the worst ever approval ratings for Gov. Charlie Crist -- a hit to his independent bid for Senate, according to a new poll released Friday.

It's the lowest job rating posted by a Florida governor in 16 years.

The same slide is evident for President Barack Obama -- who arrives in Panama City beach Saturday on his latest Gulf oil spill visit. The poll shows Obama's job approval rating dropping ``significantly'' to 41 percent.

Just 44 percent of the 625 registered voters in the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey gave Crist “excellent'' or “good'' ratings -- the first time the perennially popular governor has hit below 50 percent, pollster Brad Coker said. Crist's positive rating slid from 51 percent in May.

Crist's ratings are still above the last gubernatorial low point: then-Gov. Lawton Chiles had a 38 percent job rating in July 1994.

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Generally speaking, a favorability ranking below 50% is a harbinger of peril for incumbents.  But Crist isn’t seeking reelection—he’s seeking a Senate seat as an Independent, and he was elected to the Governor’s Mansion as a Republican. 

While garnering only 44% of those surveyed doesn’t bode well for Charlie, the prognosis for November could get even worse. There are still party primaries to be held, and once those are done the party bases will solidify behind party candidates. The mushy middle is the battleground, and they are split right down the middle.  A likely scenario in Florida is that Democrats rally around their eventual candidate; Republicans rally around Marco Rubio, and independents go for the candidate most reflective of their views.  And on the major policy issues of the day, The M-D poll shows Crist is on the wrong side of almost every one of them. 

So why does this bode poorly for Democrats?  Because Florida’s support for Barack Obama and the numbers to Crist are almost identical. Despite the state run media’s naysaying, the 2010 election is absolutely shaping up to be a referendum on Obama and his agenda.  Crist supported the abominable stimulus, which has failed Florida as badly as it failed the rest of the nation.  Crist spoke out against the Arizona Immigration Law.  Independents support it.

As Florida goes, so goes the nation, and it’s not going well for the Democrats.

Gimme some feedback in the comments.

Rasmussen Poll portends electoral disaster for Senate Democrats

It's only July, and the traditional saw among poli-junkies is that the public really doesn't think about upcoming elections until after Labor Day.  But this isn't shaping up to be a run-of-the-mill mid-term election, and Rasmussen Reports' poll on the balance of power in the Senate holds some chilling news for Senate Democrats:

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At the moment, outside of the Toss-Up states, no Republican-held seats appear headed for the Democratic column.

Six of the 10 Toss-up states are currently Democratic seats, while four are held by the GOP.

Among the six Democratic seats in the Toss-Up category, three are open seat races (Colorado, Illinois and Pennsylvania), and the Republicans have a slight edge in the most recent polling for each of those seats. As for Democratic incumbents in the Toss-Up category, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada finds himself trailing in the latest polling; Patty Murray of Washington is tied, and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin holds a very slight edge over a little-known opponent. Richard Burr of North Carolina is the only Republican incumbent in the Toss-Up category. He has led the race for most of the year but now finds himself tied with the winner of a Democratic primary runoff. Other Republican seats in play at the moment are in Florida, Missouri and Ohio. In Florida, Republican Marco Rubio is tied with former Republican Charlie Crist. The GOP candidates have slight leads in Missouri and Ohio.

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When election season finally does roll around, and those more-distracted voters start paying more attention, Crist's support in the polls is going to break for either Rubio or Meek. He may hold the support of a few independents through the election, but Democrats currently supporting him aren't likely to go into the voting booth and ignore Meek.

What was once unconscionable for Democrats is now shaping up as a real possibility--a slim GOP majority in the Senate along with a return to early 2000's margins in the House. It remains to be seen whether the Republicans can live up to their legendary capability to blow an election, but if the party can nationalize local races, make sitting Democrats account for their support of the Obama regime's agenda, another Glorious Revolution of 1994 could be in the offing.

Gimme some feedback in the comments.