Showing posts with label Election Day 2010. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election Day 2010. Show all posts

Saturday, November 6, 2010

Reasonable, centrist Democrats RIP “tone deaf” White House

Whether they survived Tuesday’s Republican Tsunami or not, a sizable collection of moderate, centrist and reasonably sane Democrats got the message.  And their message to the White House: You aren’t listening.  This Politico piece highlights the comments of defeated Florida Gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink.  Sink was largely seen as a middle-of-the road moderate and a very good candidate to run in a fickle, purplish state like Florida. But she says she got no moral support from a tone deaf White House:


In an interview with POLITICO, Sink said the administration mishandled the response to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, doesn’t appreciate the political damage done by healthcare reform and argued that her GOP opponent’s strategy of tying her to the president did grave damage to her candidacy in the state’s conservative Panhandle.

“They got a huge wake-up call two days ago, but unfortunately they took a lot of Democrats down with them,” said Sink, who lost by a single percentage point, of the White House.

She added: “They just need to be better listeners and be better at reaching out to people who are on the ground to hear about the realities of their policies as well as politics.”


Sink’s opponent, winner Rick Scott had some serious issues to overcome.  He was a first time candidate for public office and had run a medical services company linked to a whopper of a Medicare fraud case. But Scott used the ruling class Democrats’ tin ear to tie Sink to an out-of-touch administration and rode voter dissatisfaction to the Governor’s Mansion in Tallahassee.

But Sink is not the only centrist Democrat singing this tune. Witness Jason Altmire, D-PA, Jim Matheson, D-UT and Heath Shuler, D-NC. Their ire is pointed at the legislative arm of the ruling class, particularly the tone-deaf Nancy Pelosi:


Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire, a moderate Democrat from a conservative district in western Pennsylvania says, "I am not voting for Nancy Pelosi."

"I don't get the sense that Speaker Pelosi understands what happened on Tuesday. We lost middle America. The Democratic party got crushed," Altmire told CNN in a telephone interview from his district. "I would rather have someone who understands middle America and someone who can relate to the districts we lost," he said.
Altmire noted that many of his fellow Democrats in districts near his lost their seats, including Kathy Dahlkemper of Pennsylvania, Charlie Wilson of Ohio, and John Boccieri also of Ohio.

"I understand what happened Tuesday. I had an incredibly close race," said Altmire.

With Speaker Nancy Pelosi still deliberating about her future, some House Democrats are not waiting to make their own feelings known.

Two conservative Democrats, Representatives Heath Shuler of North Carolina and Jim Matheson of Utah, went public on Thursday with their view that Ms. Pelosi should step aside as leader after devastating losses to House Republicans.

“This is about being a team player,” said Mr. Shuler in an interview, adding that he and others did not believe the party can recover if Ms. Pelosi remained at the helm. “I don’t see us having the ability to recruit moderate candidates if she were to be the minority leader.”


Another conservative Blue Dog, Gene Taylor, D-MS is officially gracious in defeat. But privately, Taylor seethes with anger at the White House’s bungling of the Gulf Oil Spill Disaster, the President’s unwillingness to listen to the people and Pelosi’s unmitigated partisanship. Taylor’s conservative credentials are solid gold.  He lost anyway, because his opponent, Steven Palazzo, capitalized on the Gulf Coast’s repudiation of Obama, Pelosi and Reid.

In truth, people like Sink, Altmire, Matheson, Shuler and Taylor are the greatest threat to Republicans’ consolidation of power. Their centrist message and moderate philosophy rings true with the great American middle. While their defeat is their own doing, having a chastened White House and Democrat leadership in Congress learn Tuesday’s lesson and change course would be their best hope for regaining lost seats and checking the incoming class of conservatives.

But by all accounts, the ruling class is hearing none of it. Obama doesn’t think he actually did anything wrong. No, his problem was that he didn’t say enough right. And instead of letting a more moderate voice take over as House Minority Leader, the partisan ideologue—Nancy Pelosi—intends to return as the face and voice of Congressional Democrats. They just don’t get it.

If Obama, Pelosi, and surviving Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid had any political sense, they’d have gotten the message. For a bunch of allegedly savvy politicians, thank God they make such good radical ideologues.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Hundreds of seats: GOP sweeps statehouses, too

image Winning at least six seats in the Senate and sending a host of bona fide conservatives to the upper chamber was big. Winning an outright majority and at least 60 seats in the US House of Representatives was a bomb. But maybe the best impact in last night’s forty trillion megaton Republican victory will keep radiating for at least the next ten years.

The GOP’s power reached way down the ballot, sweeping Democrats out of state legislatures across the country. In some states, like Alabama, Republicans took control of both houses of the legislature and won the Governor’s Mansion.  And the Attorney General’s office. AND every seat up for election on the State Supreme Court.  Why are such down-ballot victories so important? This Foxnews.com story tells us why:


The GOP picked up at least 19 chambers and hundreds of seats, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures -- though the tally is not final and Republican recruitment arm GOPAC pegs the party's chamber pickups at about 23. In several states, Republicans took control of both chambers and the governor's seat.

Though the taking of the U.S. House of Representatives overshadowed the victories for the Republican Party on the state level, the state legislatures take on outsized importance ahead of the 2012 cycle. State governments are responsible for redrawing the congressional districts in accordance with the results of the 2010 Census, and the GOP now has a much stronger voice in that process. 

"It is truly historic that we could flip that many legislative chambers in one off-year election," GOPAC Chairman Frank Donatelli told FoxNews.com. "It's broad, it's deep and it's across the entire country."

The state-level GOP wave could help their congressional counterparts build a bigger majority in the next cycle. Donatelli noted that it also gives Republicans an immediate chance to push their agenda while the U.S. Congress potentially falls prey to political deadlock.

"We can now begin the reform process in a lot of these states right now. We don't have to wait for 2012 to happen," he said.


For generations, Democrats have used statehouse majorities to carve Congressional District boundaries in ways that protect their incumbency, such as the Texas 18th, the North Carolina 12th, the California 38th and dozens of others. With so many states having new Republican majorities in the legislatures, a lot of those boundaries can be redrawn to blunt the Democrats’ built in advantage and make it easier to consolidate the House majority. With the 2012 Senate election shaping up to be difficult battleground for Democrats, the GOP could have solid majorities in both houses.

That’s why the 2010 election has to be viewed as nothing more than a very important first step.  Tuesday was a big victory, but it’s part of a long process that the left—and the media it uses to maintain its relevance—will battle every step of the way.

Healthcare Vote costly for Democrats

Via The Hill, if there was one Golden Thread woven through the fabric of last night’s crushing defeat in the House of Representatives, it was that Democrats who voted for the final Obamacare legislation were mowed down like weeds.


The evening started pretty well for Democrats who voted for healthcare reform, with Rep. John Yarmuth of Kentucky handily winning reelection with 54.5 percent of the vote. Yarmuth's seat was listed as "likely Democratic" in the Nov. 1 edition of The Cook Political Report, one of 77 "yes" vote seats in play Tuesday evening.

Things quickly went downhill from there.

Within hours, a dozen members had lost reelection, including four freshmen elected in the 2008 Democratic wave: Reps. Tom Perriello and Glenn Nye of Virgina and Suzanne Kosmas and Alan Grayson of Florida.

They weren't alone: Democratic Reps. Baron Hill (Ind.), Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.) and Allen Boyd (Fla.) quickly joined them. So did Pennsylvania Reps. Kathy Dahlkemper, Chris Carney and Paul Kanjorski, all of whom were main targets of the anti-abortion-rights group the Susan B. Anthony List.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), who voted for the bill when her vote was crucial but later voted no on reconciliation, was also defeated.

The trend is even worse when factoring in yes votes who weren't running for reelection.

Retiring Rep. Bart Gordon (Tenn.) left Democratic candidate Brett Carter to get pulverized by Republican Diane Black, 29.3 percent to 67.5.


The Hill piece doesn’t mention the Michigan 1st District, where retiring Bart Stupak had his seat snatched away by newcomer Dan Benishek. It was Stupak’s compromise on his pro life principles that led to the final vote last March, and that compromise cost the Democrats a seat that had been in their hands for many years.

If this tells Congress anything at all, it tells them that the American people don’t want Obamacare.  They want it repealed, and they were willing to turn out long-serving Democrats in order to make their voices heard.  Yes, last night was a referendum on President Obama, but it was also a referendum on his “signature” legislation.  They don’t like it, don’t want it, and they were disgusted by the way it was rammed through.

Republicans will almost certainly resubmit legislation to repeal the law when the 112th Congress is seated.  Democrats who survived last night should take heed.  The American people are watching you, and you’re just as likely to get your asses kicked as your former colleagues were last night if you don’t listen.

A Crimson Red Tide sweeps Alabama

image For the first time since Reconstruction, the Alabama Legislature will be controlled by the GOP. Combine that with a win by Republican Robert Bentley in the Gubernatorial race, a win by Republican Kay Ivey in the Lieutenant Governor’s race, Republican Luther Strange’s win in the Attorney General’s race, complete control of the Alabama Supreme Court and there is no other conclusion: Alabama is now a Crimson Red state.

Via the Mobile Press-Register:


An apparently energized electorate painted Alabama a deeper red Tuesday as Republicans hammered Democrats, winning the governor's office easily and a majority of seats in the Legislature for the first time since Reconstruction.

Dr. Robert Julian Bentley, who until June was a little-known Republican legislator and retired Tuscaloosa dermatologist, was elected Alabama's 53rd governor.

Republican Kay Ivey rode the anti-incumbent tide to upset Jim Folsom Jr., who was seeking a third term as lieutenant governor.

With 95 percent of the vote counted, Ivey, who is completing a second term as state treasurer, had 740,522, votes or 51.3 percent to Folsom's 702,239, votes or 48.7 percent.

Republican Luther Strange defeated Democrat James Anderson in the race for Alabama attorney general tonight.

"I'm honored, I'm happy with the results and I'm ready to go to work for the people of Alabama," Strange said from his campaign celebration in Homewood.

Strange, 57, of Birmingham, campaigned on a pledge to fight public corruption and restore integrity to an office held since 2004 by Republican Troy King.


Alabama Republican Senator Richard Shelby also cruised to reelection, as did AL-01 Representative Jo Bonner.  But in yet another example of the wave that swept the state last night, Montgomery’s Martha Roby swept political rival Bobby Bright out of the AL-02 race, leaving Alabama with one gerrymandered blue District, the AL-07. But with GOP control of the House, the Senate, the Governor’s Mansion, the AG’s office and the whole state Supreme Court, you can expect that District to get retooled in years to come.

Late last month, I implored you to vote a straight ticket.  It looks like many of you heeded that call and I’d love to take credit for starting the ripple that became the wave.  But I can’t pat myself on the back. In truth, the credit goes to the candidates and the Alabama Republican Party, all of whom worked tirelessly to make last night such a historic event. But I don’t doubt that the bloggers, facebookers and twitterers in this state had an impact.  You made history last night.

From the Shoals to the Wiregrass.  From Little River Canyon to the Fish River Bridge, Alabama is now painted in a cheery new shade of Crimson Red.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

The Narcissist-in-Chief: Strategy sessions were all about Teh One

imageIn today’s online edition of the Wall Street Journal, writers Pete Wallsten And Jonathan Weisman describe some very tense meetings between the White House and Democrat Party officials. 

According to the report, party leaders wanted Obama to reconfigure his inner circle, even going so far as to fire some of his key staff members, after several  strategy sessions failed to produce a consensus on strategy they could use to minimize some of the catastrophic losses that Democrats will almost certainly suffer tonight.

From the story:


Tensions have come to the surface after meetings over the past few weeks in which Obama senior adviser David Axelrod discussed communications strategy with senior Democratic strategists and party officials. Some Democrats were so unhappy with the White House meetings, they started their own.

The strategy sessions aired a range of disagreements over how to help Democrats forestall an electoral drubbing at the polls—a defeat party strategists believe could have been minimized with a different White House playbook.

Among the complaints: Mr. Obama conveyed an incoherent message that didn't express what Democrats would do over the next two years if they retain power; he focused more on his own image than helping Democratic candidates; and the White House picked the wrong battle when it attacked Republicans for using "outside" money to pay for campaigns, an issue disconnected from voters' real-world anxieties.

"The money thing could work, but there's never been a larger frame around it to connect it to people's lives," said Dee Dee Myers, a consultant who worked for the Clinton White House when Republicans swept the 1994 elections. She said she participated in an Oct. 8 meeting with Mr. Axelrod and about 15 Democratic strategists at the White House.

A White House official defended the Obama Team's strategy. The pushback against the flood of advertising from outside conservative groups was vital, he said. "Candidates were being pummeled by those ads. Unless we raised the issue of who was paying for it all, they were going to get swallowed alive."


Would it have mattered if the Obama White House had agreed with Party and Congressional leaders on a consensus theme for defending themselves against a coordinated, nationalized Republican assault?  Perhaps.  But the Narcissist-in-Chief was hearing none of the larger party complaints.  While the election is indeed a referendum on the policies that they had jointly agreed to press forward, El Presidente appears to have been more interested in defending his own brand, rather than the Democrat brand.

They started on this great progressive journey together. Two years and an aggressive legislative agenda completed, and now it’s time to work together to defend their record and describe precisely what policies they would pursue together. What does the Narcissist-in-chief do?  He balks. “You’re on your own,” he seems to have told them.

Despite the fact that anywhere from 50 to 70 of “them” will lose their jobs tonight for sticking their neck out and voting with the Party leadership; and despite apparent pleas from Party and Hill Democrat leaders to help craft a common message that might help reduce some of those losses, they’re done.  The faithful have outlived their usefulness and they’re getting thrown under the bus.

Tonight, the most oft-gored ox will be the conservative Blue Dog caucus. Conservative District after Conservative District is likely to turn Crimson Red. And the message being sent to ordinary Democrats is that the far-left leadership of the party doesn’t give a rat’s ass about you.  That’s why it was so important for people to go to the polls and turn ALL Democrats out, which would force the good guys in the party to clean house and return the party to its mainstream base.

The left does not rule this country.  The center-right does.  Centrist Democrats and right-leaning Republicans can work together on common sense ideas that will restore the fiscal health of our great nation, and get it back on the path it’s supposed to be on.

The Narcissist-in-Chief isn’t willing to work with you on that, but we are.

Beware “leaked” exit polls

Edison Research, the largest and most widely used company for conducting exit polls during US federal elections, is conducting research in 26 states today. Per a contact of mine at the Mobile Press-Register, all exit polling data will be quarantined until 4:30 CDT.  None of the races in Alabama or Mississippi are being sampled according to my source, but the Florida Senate and Governor races are, as is the Senate Race in Louisiana.

The Louisiana decision is odd, as David Vitter will almost certainly cruise to reelection, while the Alabama Governor’s race, the AL-02 Congressional race and the MS-04 Congressional race would be interesting.

Exit polls have not been as good at predicting a race’s outcome as they have been in understanding why a particular candidate won or lost (more on that, below).  They’re supposed to show trends among demographic groups.  The breakdown in using exit polling as a predictor is that those trends may or may not be representative of the overall electorate, introducing bias.  Furthermore, those trends don’t always reflect turnout.  An exit poll may breathlessly report that white protestant females are breaking 75-25 for Candidate A, but not tell you that the white female Catholics voted in much larger numbers.

The real point of this post—if you hear anything about leaked exit polls, dismiss it out of hand.  Exit polling data is almost never leaked now, and those with alleged inside information about what the polling data contains are talking because they have an agenda, and its never an agenda that favors our side.  In the 2000 election, there were “sources” floating around exit polling data from several states showing Al Gore with big leads among key demographics.  The data were floated by political operatives attempting to suppress GOP turnout in afternoon voting. Some think it may have worked. And don’t forget that Edison’s own exit polling data predicted that John Kerry had defeated George W. Bush in 2004.

Even though I do have a good source at the paper, I won’t get any exit polling data until you see it on one of the major networks, and even then there might be an agenda behind the discussion. And, even if there is no agenda, the data are likely to be as useless as they were six years ago.

Final Gallup Poll: “Get a paddle.”

image On the day that Americans go to the polls, Gallup has published its very last set of data on voter enthusiasm. The verdict? Record smashing Republican enthusiasm. If these numbers pan out during voting today, Republicans could be handing Barack Obama a butt whipping that are in line with even our most rabidly optimistic predictions.

There’s a little good news in there for Democrats.  They’re also expected to get some fairly good turnout numbers. Second best at 44% but well behind their numbers from 2006, when they peaked at 53%.  But that’s where the good news stops, ladies and gentlemen.


The record level of overall enthusiasm is primarily the result of Republicans’ heightened excitement — 63% of Republicans (including Republican-leaning independents) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting. That not only greatly exceeds Democrats’ expressed enthusiasm this year, but also is substantially higher than what Gallup has measured for either party’s supporters on the eve of a midterm election.

The high level of Republican enthusiasm has led to the largest gap in enthusiasm by party of any recent midterm elections, 19 percentage points. The prior highs were nine points in favor of the Democrats in 2006, and nine points in favor of the Republicans in 1994.

The party with the advantage in enthusiasm has won the greater share of the national congressional vote, and gained seats in the House, each election year since Gallup began tracking voter enthusiasm in 1994.


Here’s a snapshot of the “enthusiasm gap” as measured by Gallup in the last five midterm elections. Nineteen points is unprecedented. It would be a mistake to try to correlate the enthusiasm gaps measured versus the number of seats that swung in each election, and then use the correlation to predict the landscape come tomorrow morning.  Why? Because the 2010 numbers are off the charts. 

image

The White House has announced a 1:00 pm EDT news conference tomorrow.   No word yet if John Boehner will attend, or if he’ll have a short, flat wooden object in his hands.

“Because, BUSH!” DNC already in spin mode over election losses

image None of the polls have closed yet.  In fact, Alaskan and Hawaiian polls haven’t even opened yet.  But that isn’t stopping the DNC from scapegoating what are sure to be historic losses in today’s midterm elections.

In the Election Day 2010 talking points email sent to its media shills and other assorted allies today, they can’t even get out of the first paragraph before frothing at the mouth and blaming “BOOSH!”


Democrats knew that 2010 would be an uphill battle for three reasons: 1) the party of the President historically loses seats in midterm elections; 2) too many people are looking for work or struggling to get by as a result of 8 years of irresponsible economic policies (and despite creating more private sector jobs in the last 8 months than President Bush did in 8 years); and 3) the sheer number of seats we're defending this year as a result of the successes of 2006 and 2008, including 49 Democratic Representatives on the ballot this year whose districts John McCain won in 2008.

But as a result of the hard work of the President, Democratic campaigns, the DNC, OFA, coordinated campaigns, campaign committees, and committed Democratic volunteers, our candidates are more competitive today than in previous comparative mid-term elections and in the best position possible for success.


The stupidity of blaming Bush for a historic election ass-kicking is breathtaking.  Not only is Bush now more popular than Obama in opinion surveys, he’s likely to return to the campaign trail in 2012 to raise money and stump for Republican hopefuls in that election.

But more comical is the second paragraph.  The only comparable midterm elections were 1938, 1946 and 1994.  There are some statistical analyses showing that the 2010 midterm could be even more historic and destroy some long-held beliefs about generic ballot polling, turnout and how it translates into seats won/lost.

It boggles the mind that a reasonably cognizant spokesperson could utter that second paragraph with a straight face.

The real truth that Democrats are going to have to face is that despite spending trillions in stimulus money, taking over the automobile, health care and financial services industry, alienating our allies while emboldening our enemies and speaking down to the American people as if they were so many peasants on the plantation, the electorate is poised to rise up and smite the beast like the fist of an angry God.

No amount of spin can change that.

Election Day 2010: What it’s about, and making it happen

Go read this at Right Sphere.


By now you’ve heard a few dozen different theories on what this election is about. I’ll break it down for you, but I’m going to use the words of a very famous Constitutional scholar:

“If Congress can employ money indefinitely to the general welfare, and are the sole and supreme judges of the general welfare, they may take the care of religion into their own hands; they may appoint teachers in every State, county and parish and pay them out of their public treasury; they may take into their own hands the education of children, establishing in like manner schools throughout the Union; they may assume the provision of the poor; they may undertake the regulation of all roads other than post-roads; in short, every thing, from the highest object of state legislation down to the most minute object of police, would be thrown under the power of Congress…. Were the power of Congress to be established in the latitude contended for, it would subvert the very foundations, and transmute the very nature of the limited Government established by the people of America.”

Sound familar? Those are comments made by the primary author of the Constitution, James Madison. He said this during a debate about a bill being considered to subsidize cod fisherman. Apparently, some politician was arguing that this subsidy would fall under the General Welfare clause and Madison objected to the use of that language to justify the measure. In doing so he objected to the very Federal Government we have today.

THIS is what the election is about. The current administration has taken an already out of control government and put it in overdrive. Towards the end of the Bush administration, the American public was beginning to get fed up with this situation. When Obama started enacting his agenda, the Progressive agenda, the Big Government Statism that Madison objected to a couple hundred years ago, the American people were motivated to action.


Seriously, go read the whole thing.  RB breaks it down and lays it out for you.  This election is one step towards reversing decades of the same kind of progressive growth in government that Madison was warning us against. 

On October 22nd, I wrote this post about voting a straight ticket.  That’s just what I did just moments before writing this post.  It was the first time in 16 years that I’ve voted straight ticket, and only the second time in a voting history that I started in 1980. I implore you to do the same thing.  Don’t let even the “good guys” in the Democrat Party get back into office until they clean their own house and return their party to the mainstream it was in the decades after World War II.  That’s not the party of Harry S. Truman or Jack Kennedy anymore.  That’s the party of Karl Marx and Eugene Debs. 

Democrats need to be taught a stern lesson, and RB’s post beautifully explains why.  The center-right majority that rules this country needs to rise up today in ways that destroys the media narrative. We’re not angry.  We’re not frustrated.  We’re not scared. We’re not stupid.  We’re not peasants.  We’re determined to take the first step towards getting our country back.  And the best way to do that is to make the Democrats take their party back.

And if you haven’t already, go make the Crimson Red Tsunami happen.

CrimsonTsunami