Monday, November 1, 2010

Two “Blue Dog” Districts that are almost certain to flip

I’ve talked about and linked to Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight blog about 373,384,288 times during this election cycle.  I’ve also mentioned two key, southern Blue Dog Districts several times.  Those are MS-04, where conservative Democrat Gene Taylor is locked in a dogfight with Steven Palazzo; and AL-02, where conservative Democrat and former Montgomery mayor is locked in a battle with former Montgomery city council member Martha Roby.

As of tonight, Election Eve, Silver has both races flipping to the Republicans.

Click this link for his forecast for MS-04.

Click this link for his forecast for AL-02.

Early in this cycle, both of these seats looked like safe holds for the Democrats. Congressional Quarterly had them both reliably blue. But Taylor’s support has eroded quickly in the face of a fierce media campaign by Palazzo and Martha Roby’s been getting tremendous Tea Party and national GOP support.

As of the opening of polls tomorrow morning, it looks like they’re both going Crimson Red.

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