Last Call: Alabama vs Clemson, Part IV – Who wins and why

Here we go again. It’s Alabama and Clemson for the fourth time overall and the third time for the National Championship. Alabama has a 2-1 lead in the College Football Playoff series, winning it in the title game after the 2015 season, losing in the title game after 2016 and winning again in the first round last year. This is the matchup everyone has expected since opening day last September. Though it’s probably not the matchup everyone wanted.

Both teams have had close calls on the way to Santa Clara. Clemson scraped by Syracuse at home and struggled against Texas A&M on the road (Bama easily beat A&M in Tuscaloosa. Alabama trailed Georgia until late in the 4th in the SEC Championship game. But both teams have blown out most mere mortals.

Alabama has the best QB tandem in the country. Either current starter Tua Tagovailoa or 2017 starter Jalen Hurts can absolutely ruin Clemson’s day. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence is a talent upgrade from 2017’s Kelly Bryant (who quit the team after being benched; go figure). But he is an experience and athleticism downgrade and wash, respectively. Lawrence has never seen a defense like Alabama’s and this is his first year as a starter. Lawrence is not the running threat that Bryant or his predecessor Deshaun Watson was. Both Tagovailoa and Hurts are. The game of college football can sometimes turn based on the play at the QB position and remember that Alabama doesn’t always use Tagavailoa OR Hurts.

Alabama’s offensive line has been stellar all season and they are the major reason why the QB and running corps have been so successful. Clemson has great athleticism on the defensive front, but the Tiger secondary comes up wanting. Syracuse and South Carolina had passing clinics against Clemson but neither team had defenses quite up to the task of stopping Lawrence & Co. Bama does.

Alabama’s defense has somehow consistently gotten better as the season has gone along. Early in the season, the baby-fresh secondary had receivers running open almost every play. Guys were often out of position or bit on head fakes. By the time Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray faced the Tide, guys were better at strategy, technique and physicality. True, Patrick Surtain was targeted successfully on one drive by Oklahoma.

Clemson’s experienced offensive line will face the meanest, most athletic and deepest defensive front it has seen all year. They haven’t seen anything like it since last year’s strangulation by Bama. Alabama’s offensive front will see a bunch that looks a lot like LSU’s. And Mississippi State’s. And Auburn’s. And Georgia’s.

While college football often turns on QB play, the outcome is usually determined by which team has big uglies that are better than the other guy’s big uglies. Alabama has a slight edge in the DL-OL match, and by far the better QB team.

Alabama 38, Clemson 28

Addendum: The fourth Alabama – Clemson matchup in four years is being used by ESPN’s selected mouthpieces as another reason why we need an expanded playoff field. They used the snub of Georgia and Ohio State in the same fashion.

More football games in the postseason is not good for college football. It lessens the importance of the regular season and it is that which sets football apart from every other collegiate sport. The tradition, pageantry and rivalries that make the regular season so important to so many fans and alumni must always be a primary consideration. A completely secondary consideration is more money for conferences, conference executives and ESPN.

As for the fans, we are good with four and no more.

Barring a meteor strike, Bama and Clemson are on a championship collision course.

The Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers are on a completely different plane of existence than the other 128 programs in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS). After Georgia and Ohio State showed their mortality against LSU and Purdue(!?) respectively the last two Saturdays, it’s now clear that there are only two Titans left in college football, and they’ve done battle in the College Football Playoff three times before.

Alabama has beaten Clemson twice since the inception of the CFP. Clemson has beaten Alabama once. They have played consecutive years in the postseason and there seems very little standing in the way of a fourth collision in January 2019.

Clemson has feigned mortality twice this season. Once in a home scare against Syracuse. A second time on the road against a not-too-shabby Texas A&M squad. No one else they’ve faced has offered more than token resistance and it’s unlikely that anyone on their schedule has the chops to knock them off.

Alabama looks invincible. The Tide team makes well oiled machines look like clunky, puttering wrecks and has yet to do anything but score on the first possession of their first eight games. Bama’s offensive line stems the Mongol Hordes while QB Tua Tagovailoa picks apart the opposing secondary and the fleet of bowling balls roll through defenseless pins. Bama’s defense started the season with questions about the secondary and after eight games appears to be almost as nasty as the 2011-2012 squad.

Both of these programs have gotten here the right way and the hard way. With a press corps that scrutinizes every move of every player and every coach on every day of their lives. With an NCAA enforcement division that’s never been so well staffed and so well funded. With the 24/7/365 news cycle driven by social media and internet bulletin board chatter.  Alabama and Clemson have as much chance of cheating as a naked Stormy Daniels would sneaking a 38 Special on to Air Force One.

Alabama and Clemson have recruited better, developed better, coached better, scheduled better and just played better for three straight years (four for Bama). No one has been able to stop them from excelling in a sport with rules that are designed to prevent anyone from being better than everyone else over and over and over.

They are winning, and no one can make them stop.

That has the chatterati class whining about the CFP four team playoff and crying for expansion of the field. If they’d just expand the field other teams would have a chance, they say. It’s not about ability, hard work and determination, they say. It’s really about privilege.

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Pure. Playoff. Privilege.

With Alabama being the only team 'on cruise control' to the playoff, @TimBrando says it’s time to extend and it’s time to extend now. pic.twitter.com/Pg1Z1FOK9z

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 21, 2018

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Tim Brando isn’t the only idiot playing this tune. The college football talking heads are a perfectly harmonized chorus singing the privilege blues. They sound like a bunch of Democrats who never understand that when you try to soak the privileged, all you do is concentrate more power into the hands of the privileged. If they think the CFP is rigged now, just expand the field to six, eight or ten teams. Go ahead—give the Alabamas, Clemsons, Georgias and Ohio States more victims. They’ll just get to play more games, gain more recruiting exposure, get more postseason practice time and make more money.

More money means the privileged will just recruit better, develop better, coach better, schedule better and … just play better.

This post isn’t a philosophical rant. It’s an acknowledgment of the fact that whatever rules you play the game by, there will always be winners and losers. And the winners are pretty easy to spot pretty early on during the game. Right now, the game’s winners are Alabama and Clemson and there’s no one showing the chops to do anything about it.

Robert Nkemdiche recruiting: What does this guy know that we don’t?

From Saturday morning’s Mobile Press-Register Sound Off section comes this little nugget:

Wait for second part on Nkemdiche

I think you're going to find in the Robert Nkemdiche commitment that Mickey Conn, his high school coach, will also be getting a position at Clemson. This was a packaged deal, and we will see it in a few days.

NCAA by-laws appear to frown on this kind of activity:

13.8.2 Material Benefits. Arrangements by an institution that involve a material benefit for a high school, preparatory school or two-year college coach, or for any other individual responsible for teaching or directing an activity in which a prospective student-athlete is involved, (e.g., the provision of a gift such as a tangible item bearing the institution’s insignia, the offer to pay a portion of the coach’s or other individual’s personal expenses, compensation based on the number of campers sent to an institution’s camp, or an arrangement to provide transportation for the coach or other individual) are prohibited.

and:

13.8.3.5 Employment in Same Sport. A high school, preparatory school or two-year college coach who remains associated with the high school, preparatory school or two-year college in a coaching capacity in the same sport shall not be employed as a member of an institution’s coaching staff.

13.8.3.5.1 Contract for Future Employment. A member institution is permitted to enter into a contractual agreement with a high school, preparatory school or two-year college coach for an employment opportunity that begins with the next academic year, provided the employment contract with the member institution is not contingent upon the enrollment of a prospective student-athlete and the coach does not begin any coaching duties (e.g., recruiting, selection of coaching staff) for the member institution while remaining associated with the high school, preparatory school or two-year college.

There are some instances where a high school coach gets a job with the school that a player of his enrolls in. Gus Malzahn and Mitch Mustain were a much covered “package deal” to Arkansas six years ago. Houston Nutt, Malzahn and Mustain obviously convinced authorities that it really wasn’t a package deal and no NCAA violations were alleged.

If the Sound Off caller is correct and Conn does end up with a job at Clemson, he’ll have to leave his current position and swear an oath in blood that his new job had nothing to do with Nkemdiche’s eventual enrollment at Clemson.

If that enrollment occurs, that is.

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Did Dabo Swinney go “big brother” on Steve Spurrier?

Why yes, he did.

In the video below, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney is asked about comments South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier reportedly made after the Gamecocks beat the Tigers for the third straight time. While I’ve yet to find the source of the quote, internet message board and Twitter chatter has the Ol’ Ball Coach saying, “We ain't LSU or Alabama but we ain't Clemson either.”

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“I think he is exactly right - they are not Clemson and never will be. You are looking at the best era in the history of South Carolina football right now. They just had their second 10-win season. They won a championship in 1969 and the 2010 SEC East. And this rivalry—there is a lot of rivalries out there—this is more of a domination and that’s a fact. My kids’ grandkids won’t live long enough to see this really become a rivalry.”

“I have respect for their program, but South Carolina is not Clemson. There are a lot of differences. This is a place that has won a national title, 17 conference championships and two division titles. Heck, we have won more bowl games than they have even been to. I think our program has 100 plus more wins than South Carolina. That is reality. This is the best era in 115 years of South Carolina football is right now and they have done a great job.

“Coach Spurrier has been there for seven years, but after five years I think he had 35 wins and got a new contract and all that kind of stuff. After five years at Clemson, if I have only got 35 wins there is going to be a new coach here and you know what there should be because there is a different standard. He is exactly right – they ain’t Alabama, they ain’t LSU and they certainly are not Clemson. That is why Carolina is in Chapel Hill, USC is in California and the university in this state always has been and always will be Clemson. It’s right here in Clemson, SC. You can print that. Tweet that.”

Some have said that Swinney shouldn’t have responded at all, especially given the fact that Spurrier is only alleged to have provided the quote that’s gone viral. Don’t believe everything you read on the internet, right?

UPDATE: Kegs n Eggs has the audio snippet of where the quote came from. Mash here for Adam’s post. As it turns out, Radio Man Todd Ellis uttered the fateful phrase, but prefaced it with “As Coach Spurrier said…”

Whether Spurrier actually said what’s attributed to him is now irrelevant. This little tit-for-tat will become bulletin board material for next season, and Swinney is now 1-3 against Spurrier in the rivalry. Now, Swinney has to win or the Gamecock fans might start a “fear the thumb” campaign a year from now.

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Bama Loves ‘Em Some Iowa State

By: @LivingCrimson

Roll, Cyclones, Roll!  Bama is back in the BCS picture.

Unranked Iowa State upset #2 Oklahoma State 37-31 in double overtime Friday night. The Clones showed up with some gutsy offensive playcalling, a defense that forced five turnovers, and a big storm of BCS chaos.

As Michael Casagrande reported, the Tide’s LT Barrett Jones tweeted “Absolute mayhem in Hotel Capstone. Everyone in the halls hugging each other. Now WE control our destiny!”

One UofA student tweeted “Heard all the people from the RV's in the parking lot cheering from 7 floors up in my room!! #IOWASTATE #ROLLTIDE”.

What does all this mean for Bama’s chances to make the BCS national championship game, or the SEC championship game for that matter?

Logically Alabama will move up to #2 and obviously must win its two remaining regular season games against Georgia Southern and #24 Auburn. Dominating those opponents and winning convincingly would be the best way for the Tide to maintain a #2 BCS rank. If Bama were to fall below second place, any chance for the BCS National Championship Game would be lost.

The last BCS rankings to determine the #1 and #2 teams will be released the Sunday after the SEC Championship Game. Which teams stand between the Crimson Tide and the crystal trophy?

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LSU

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#1 LSU and #11 Houston now stand as the lone undefeateds in the BCS Top 25. Conference USA Houston’s signature win is UCLA, so not much chance of advancement for the Cougars unless several teams ahead of them crash and burn over the next three weeks.

To finish out the regular season, LSU must face Ole Miss today and Arkansas next week. Les Miles has never had an undefeated season in his head coaching career and has lost two of his last three games versus Bobby Petrino’s Hogs. If LSU fell to Arkansas, the SEC West would have a three-way tie between Alabama, Arkansas and LSU. In that event, the SEC rules for divisional tie-breaker would determine the team to advance to the SEC Championship Game.

For Bama to be the SEC West team in Atlanta:

1. LSU must fall below both Alabama and Arkansas in the BCS rankings;
2. Alabama and Arkansas must stay within five rankings of each other for the head-to-head results to kick in;
3. By virtue of Alabama’s win over Arkansas, the Tide would advance to the SEC title game.

If LSU beats Arkansas, then Bama’s route to New Orleans will depend on the rise and fall of several other teams.

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Oklahoma

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#5 Oklahoma and #4 Oregon are tied in the BCS computer rankings. The human polls moved Oregon ahead of Oklahoma in just the last week. However, Oklahoma faces three tough games to finish out the regular season (#22 Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State), which should restore Oklahoma’s lead over Oregon if the Sooners win out.

In fact, an Oklahoma win over Baylor and then Iowa State (which beat #2 Oklahoma State) will likely be enough to move the Sooners ahead of Alabama in the polls. A win over Oklahoma State would probably make the lead ironclad.

There is no longer a Big 12 conference championship game, but that fact should not affect the strength of schedule for the Sooners this year.

If LSU wins out the regular season and the SEC title game, my expectation would be to see Oklahoma in the BCS championship game.

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Oregon

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#4 Oregon faces two remaining regular season games, at home today against USC and next week against Oregon State. USC spoiled #4 Stanford’s chances at the BCS title game. An Oregon win over the Trojans will probably keep the Ducks ahead of Oklahoma in the polls for another week, but not be enough of a boon to keep Oregon ahead for the duration if Oklahoma wins its remaining games.

Chip Kelly has won both matches versus Oregon State in his tenure. The rivalry is intense though and the outcome is never certain. If Oregon loses to Oregon State, it would still advance to the Pac-12 championship game by virtue of its win over Stanford. However, if the Ducks lose to USC and Oregon State, then Stanford would advance to the Pac-12 game.

If Oregon wins out and advances to the Pac-12 conference game, it will face UCLA or Arizona State (or an outside chance of Utah) (USC the leader cannot advance due to NCAA sanctions). UCLA is currently in the catbird seat to advance, and there’s the rub. If UCLA defeats Oregon in the Pac-12 title game, then the Bruins defeat by Houston in the regular season comes into play in the BCS rankings. The BCS would probably move Houston up to Oregon’s spot in the top 5.

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Clemson

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#7 Clemson and #8 Virginia Tech are longshots to be considered for the BCS championship game. Clemson’s most likely opponent in the ACC conference championship game will be Virginia Tech. If Clemson beats North Carolina State today, #12 South Carolina next week and then Virginia Tech, the Tigers have the most opportunity to advance into the top 5 of the polls. If LSU wins out in the regular season and the SEC title game, AND Oklahoma and Oregon lose in a big way, Clemson potentially could advance over Alabama into the #2 spot if the human polls don’t want to see a Bama-LSU rematch.

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Georgia

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#14 Georgia has two regular season games left, at home today versus Kentucky and next week at Georgia Tech. Assuming a win over Kentucky, Georgia will represent the SEC East in the SEC Championship Game.

If Georgia beats LSU in Atlanta, it’s highly unlikely Alabama would have any chance to make the BCS title game unless the other one-loss contenders failed in key games before December 3rd. Too many questions about the Tide’s “quality” opponents would prevent the human polls from keeping Bama in the top 2.

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Playoffs

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The camp supporting a playoff system in college football would probably like to see an Alabama-LSU rematch to boost its argument against the BCS system. My co-blogger @GulfCoastTider has an excellent article about the 2013 demise of the current bowl structure.

Depending on the strength of this view, the human polls could conceivably keep Bama in the #2 spot in the rankings despite any outcomes in the other one-loss team games. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the Tide boasts a Heisman contender in Trent Richardson and the best defense in college football in 25 years.

All of the above is conjecture and can change rapidly over the next three weeks. The Tide must continue to focus on the things it can control, win its games and let the season speak for itself. And continue to carry the torch for the little team that could, the Iowa State Cyclones.

More Bama updates on Twitter @LivingCrimson