Monday, November 4, 2019

Alabama is a 6.5 point favorite against LSU, and that means nothing

No. 2 Alabama has been installed as a 6.5-point favorite over top-ranked LSU in an SEC showdown potentially featuring two Heisman Trophy frontrunners at quarterback on Saturday in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been out since suffering a high ankle sprain in a win over Tennessee on Oct. 19. He underwent surgery the next day and missed Alabama's win over Arkansas before returning to practice in a limited capacity last week.
Alabama coach Nick Saban has maintained that Tagovailoa's availability against LSU will be a "game-time decision."

The good news: LSU hasn't played a team this good all season.

The bad news: Alabama hasn't played a team this good all season, either.

Both of these teams feature offenses that are capable of overwhelming the other team's defenses. As a result, many are expecting a high scoring game. Mac Jones is a QB like AJ McCarron. He's more than capable behind a great offensive line and using great offensive weapons. Joe Burrow is a QB a lot like AJ McCarron... and you know.

Auburn had trouble moving the ball but that team was one play away from a win against LSU. In Baton Rouge. After dark (by the 4th quarter). Auburn's offensive line sucks. Bama's doesn't.

The Tide's defense has assignment discipline issues at safety and left outside linebacker. LSU never got going against a very good (but not great) Auburn defensive front that has its own assignment issues.

Joe Burrow has two very good receivers and a very good offensive line.

Mac Jones has four great receivers, a very good pair of tight ends and an improving (still!) offensive line.

Tua Tagovailoa is listed as maybe in/maybe not just to keep the LSU braintrust uncertain. Mac could start the first series and Tua could wreck then LSU's dreams like he did to UGA in the Big One.

Alabama leads the conference in the turnover game.

The game is in Tuscaloosa but home field is no advantage in this series.

The betting line is never a prediction by oddsmakers. It's just a number that keeps betting money going equally each way. The price to bet on Alabama and get paid for being right is 6.5 points. If people keep choosing the Tide the price (line)goes up.

Watch this game be a low scoring affair. In this series, it always seems that when the stakes are this high, so is the effort.


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