Sunday, October 20, 2019

What's in your wallet?

The title is a trick question. The answer of course, is "More!"

The American people tend to vote with their wallets. If things are going well and people are better off, they don't tend to make leadership changes. The only recent exception to this tendency was 2000 when a third Clinton term via Al Gore was bungled away by the man whose hubris was exceeded only by the speed of his sprint away from the economic record of the 1990's. In the mother of all ironies, the regime that got elected by the phrase "it's the economy, stupid!" was beaten because Gore forgot that... it's the economy, stupid.

Please spare the argument over the Obama economy "going well" in 2016. A two-term President who actually has a shit to give about the well-being of the average American family could have at least one year of real GDP growth over 2%. He didn't and he's the only once since the Great Depression to claim that distinction. Democrats commandeered nearly one-fifth of the U.S. economy with the Obamacare debacle and they couldn't produce a single year that the economy outran population growth?

My, how things have changed.

We're still just over a year until the 2020 Election so there's still time for the worst wishes of Donald Trump's worst critics to come true. A lot of economic change could change the facts, which would likely make people change their minds. But right now, in October 2019, here are the facts.

The prediction Watters is referring to here is the Moody's Analytics 2020 Presidential Election Model (PDF). Moody's is non-partisan.  The authors/creators of the model aren't political hacks or media shills. They're data geeks and their market-driven data don't come from popular opinion polls (which are a lot easier to fiddle with than data from bureaus and market stats). Their consumer targeted website is and it contains a wealth of insight into U.S. and global economic patterns. Some of it is free and some of it is expensive but it's always good stuff. 

The Average Joe is absolutely better off today than he was four years ago. We have a very strong pattern of seeing voters cast their ballots based on their financial condition and we have an incumbent who has a demonstrated record of economic success.

The economy has never been better.

In his brief segment, Watters doesn't mention how segments of the electorate long-forgotten by Democrats are faring. African-American unemployment has never been lower. Hispanic unemployment has never been lower. Unemployment among women hasn't been this low since Rosie the Riveter won World War II. The lowest fifth, lowest quarter and lowest half of all income earners have seen more consecutive increases in real income than anytime since 2007, the first full year of data before the housing crisis tanked the economy. Real people that have heard promises of prosperity since Lyndon Johnson's "Great Society" are seeing real benefits of Trumponomics.

What's in your wallet? "More." That is unless you live in a blue state that has a high income tax rate.


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