Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Rasmussen Poll portends electoral disaster for Senate Democrats

It's only July, and the traditional saw among poli-junkies is that the public really doesn't think about upcoming elections until after Labor Day.  But this isn't shaping up to be a run-of-the-mill mid-term election, and Rasmussen Reports' poll on the balance of power in the Senate holds some chilling news for Senate Democrats:
At the moment, outside of the Toss-Up states, no Republican-held seats appear headed for the Democratic column.

Six of the 10 Toss-up states are currently Democratic seats, while four are held by the GOP.

Among the six Democratic seats in the Toss-Up category, three are open seat races (Colorado, Illinois and Pennsylvania), and the Republicans have a slight edge in the most recent polling for each of those seats. As for Democratic incumbents in the Toss-Up category, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada finds himself trailing in the latest polling; Patty Murray of Washington is tied, and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin holds a very slight edge over a little-known opponent. Richard Burr of North Carolina is the only Republican incumbent in the Toss-Up category. He has led the race for most of the year but now finds himself tied with the winner of a Democratic primary runoff. Other Republican seats in play at the moment are in Florida, Missouri and Ohio. In Florida, Republican Marco Rubio is tied with former Republican Charlie Crist. The GOP candidates have slight leads in Missouri and Ohio.

When election season finally does roll around, and those more-distracted voters start paying more attention, Crist's support in the polls is going to break for either Rubio or Meek. He may hold the support of a few independents through the election, but Democrats currently supporting him aren't likely to go into the voting booth and ignore Meek.

What was once unconscionable for Democrats is now shaping up as a real possibility--a slim GOP majority in the Senate along with a return to early 2000's margins in the House. It remains to be seen whether the Republicans can live up to their legendary capability to blow an election, but if the party can nationalize local races, make sitting Democrats account for their support of the Obama regime's agenda, another Glorious Revolution of 1994 could be in the offing.

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