Tua Tagovailoa Teases a Return

Will he return for a senior season, or jump to the NFL? The possibility of Bama's most prolific quarterback's return was a topic of some discussion earlier this month.

From his interview with TideSports.com's Cecil Hurt:

“Whatever God puts in my heart and my parents’ hearts, that will be the right thing.”

Tagovailoa, who suffered a hip dislocation in Alabama’s Nov. 16 game at Mississippi State and had hip surgery two days later in Houston, is finishing the semester at Alabama and will take final exams next week.

As far as his decision, Tagovailoa said he was looking “at both sides of the spectrum.”

“There is a risk and a reward if I stay and a risk and a reward if I go,” Tagovailoa said.

Tua was later seen at post-season workouts either on a scooter, cart or crutches (practices are allowed by NCAA rules for teams eligible for bowl games), and speculation on message boards, talk radio and social media ran rampant. The man has always been the consummate team player and told people that he was there to show solidarity with his teammates.

Board chatter made mention of the fact that he truly enjoys collegiate life and really likes being on campus with his younger brother, 2019 freshman Taulia.

Then yesterday during the College Football Playoff semi-finals in Atlanta and Tempe, Tua dropped this cryptic message on his Instagram feed:

I think he wants to come back, but his decision might hinge on how other players decide between now and January 20, the drop dead day for commitment to forgo collegiate eligibility. If a whole bunch of top-drawer players decide to bug out and register for the NFL draft, it could push him deep into the 1st round; possibly early 2nd (No way he gets drafted late 2nd).  That scenario makes a return to Tuscaloosa more likely. 

What makes a return even more likely? The fact that even an athlete of his prowess will not be able to participate fully in the NFL Combine or late winter/early spring private workouts. Rehabbing a dislocated hip and pelvic fracture is a months-long, grueling affair. Even if he does return for the 2020 season we won't see much of him in the spring drills or A-Day game.

Coach Nick Saban and his staff have an excellent track record of advising players about the decision to go pro or come back for their senior year. The severity of the injury and the progress of the recovery will complicate things a bit, but it's not like Tua is rolling loaded dice. He'll receive wise counsel.

My hunch is that he plays for Alabama again in 2020 just because of the uncertainty associated with the progress of the rehab.

Cover Photo via Sports Illustrated 

Tua Tagovailoa is considering a return for 2020

In an interview with the Don of Tide Sports Media, Tua Tagovailoa says he hasn't ruled out a return to the Capstone for his senior year.

“Whatever God puts in my heart and my parents’ hearts, that will be the right thing.”

Tagovailoa, who suffered a hip dislocation in Alabama’s Nov. 16 game at Mississippi State and had hip surgery two days later in Houston, is finishing the semester at Alabama and will take final exams next week.

As far as his decision, Tagovailoa said he was looking “at both sides of the spectrum.”

“There is a risk and a reward if I stay and a risk and a reward if I go,” Tagovailoa said.

I don't know about other Bama fans, but regardless of where he plays next season, I will hold my breath every time he takes a snap. He's the kind of football player that Brett Favre, Kenny Stabler and Joe Namath were. They put finishing the play first and didn't care how the dice rolled on whether he survived it or not. Sometimes the play ended spectacularly, but sometimes it ended with us all gasping in sudden fear.

Go ahead, Bama fans. Tell Tua what he should do, and tell us why your counsel makes sense. Heh...

College football is big business whether we like it or not. With big business comes big risk.

He talks about money as part of his decision making, and that's ok. There's nothing wrong with squeezing every nickel out of your abilities and there's nothing wrong with the timing of his departure coming down to a business decision.

When Tua is healthy and all cylinders are firing, he is absolutely unstoppable. He sees plays unfold before the ball is even snapped and has finished games with more TD passes than incompletions. He's a rare phenomenon and we're blessed to have had him on our side.

The Crimson Tide returns a lot of talent next season. The 2019 team was deep and talented, but also very young. Great things are possible in 2020 whether he returns for his final tour or takes his God-given talent to the NFL.

Wherever he goes, may he take God's grace with him.

The most anticipated preview of the most anticipated game of the season

Tidefans.com has been my "home" on the football side of the internet since May 2001. For every game Alabama plays during the football season, Jess Nicholas gives TF denizens a preview of the matchup, going position-by-position of both teams. He talks strengths, weaknesses and schemes and makes a pick.

With LSU undefeated again and coming  back to Tuscaloosa to face an undefeated Alabama (again), this week's preview is the most anticipated yet.

An appetizer:

Alabama will have to win this game amid a circus that will be taking place outside the stadium: the arrival of ESPN’s College Gameday set, the attendance of President Donald Trump. But the biggest circus act this week has been the high-wire balancing act of media pundits, who have had to balance their newfound love for LSU against criticism of Alabama despite the Crimson Tide being no worse than the Tigers’ equal.

He's right. As an example of the media's Wallenda Act, look no farther than SI's Pat Forde. Click that link only if you really like 500+ words of equivocating bullshit.

It's gonna be a great game. If you want to see how a really talented phrase-turner expects the game to end, click the first link.

More Bama navel gazing on the second bye week

We have nothing else better to do, so why not meditate on where the 2019 Alabama Crimson Tide is and where it might be going?

First, when it comes to the "quarterback situation," let there be no doubt that the Tide is just fine. If there were any questions about the potency of Sarkisian's offense sans Tua Tagovailoa, handy backup Mac Jones couldn't have answered them any better against Arkansas. In three full quarters of play, he had a workmanlike afternoon going 18 of 22 for 235 yards and three TD's. Not flashy, but still very effective. He hit the quick passes and threw the ball downfield with all the confidence of a veteran. He never made any potential game changing mistakes. He never held the ball too long, usually found the right receiver and ran the run-pass option calls just as designed. The angst of having to rely on a gimpy-legged Tua has faded. If faced with a choice between a 90% Tua vs 100% Mac, I'm ambivalent. How about you?

The offensive line and the Tide ground game have gotten more comfortable to watch all season long. The return of Deonte Brown to the starting lineup and the shift of Landon Dickerson to center has put the unit in just the right gear going into the most challenging part of the season. Brown is a beast--he is routinely knocking his guy down and getting out to the linebacker, making  holes that Najee Harris and Brian Robinson Jr hit for an average of about 5.2 yards per carry. Any football team that can legitimately choose to either throw or run the football on 3rd and 4 will keep drives alive and wear out any other defense. 

Even with a slightly sore Devonte Smith, Alabama has the best receiving corps in the country and it's a long, long way to second place. Pick any one and you'll have a guy who has great hands, runs routes right, blocks well downfield and can just flat outrun anybody on the other team.

Early in the season, the Tide defense was a unit that had no place to go but up. Thankfully, they have. Last season's defense saw a ton of talent and experience take their skills to Sunday play. The exodus was so great that there are five true freshman in critical defensive roles this year. DJ Dale, Justin Eboigbe, Christian Harris and Shane Lee all played high school football last year and are starters for Nick Saban in 2019. Jordan Battle comes in in dime situations.

Terrell Lewis is finally hitting his stride. Anfernee Jennings is a beast. Raekwon Davis is a monster. Christian Barmore is a terror when subbing in for Dale. Best of all, the defensive backfield are taking away the middle and doing what a 3-2 over/under defense is supposed to do--make the QB patiently beat you play after play in the face of a relentless pass rush.

There is a weakness, though. The left side is still having difficulty staying home, biting on RPOs to their right, getting stuck out of position and leaving the edge soft. LSU, Auburn and any future post-season opponents will try to exploit that. All Lewis and defensive backs Patrick Surtain and Shyheim Carter have to do is pursue a tad bit to the right and a play for a loss can get the first down (ore more. Gulp).

Even special teams are showing marked improvement. We no longer hold our breath (much) on field goals and points after. Freshman punter Ty Perine has become a coach and fan favorite, too.

Alabama is now 8-0. With the exception of Tua's ankle sprain, The team has escaped the injury bug and faces the toughest part of the schedule in good shape. At +13 in the turnover ratio, Alabama leads the nation and the SEC.

LSU's visit to Tuscaloosa on November 2 is probably the game that determines who represents the SEC West in Atlanta on December 7. LSU struggled to put away a middlin' Auburn team, had some defense issues against Florida and really hasn't faced a complete, deep roster on the road.

Not too surprisingly, Georgia has an uphill struggle to get to Atlanta--they will meet a very good Florida Gators team on the same day Bama hosts LSU. Having been upset at home against South Carolina, Georgia needs to beat the Gators at neutral Jacksonville.

Can there be a better time of the year than this?

Can we give Tua Tagovailoa a break, please?

Why are people angry or resentful towards a 21-year old football player who has yet to make a real adult decision in his whole life? Can any of those venting frustration at him remember when they were 21? When that's all they ever were was 21 at the time?

Just in case you're a cave dweller who hasn't heard, Tua Tagovailoa suffered a  dreaded "high ankle sprain" late in the second quarter last Saturday night when a Tennessee defender tried to tackle him from behind. He left the game walking on his own two feet, but sat out the second half and will miss the game this Saturday.

Man... the angst of the Bama Nation is so thick you can taste it. No, it's so thick you can wear it.

The chief lines of complaint from some Bama fans is that the phenom tries too hard. He therefore puts himself at risk of serious injury when he doesn't have to. When he tries too hard, he makes mistakes. His impetuousness is selfishness manifested when he tries to make something out of nothing. He's hurting himself and his NFL draft prospects because he makes himself injury prone.

Stop lying. Stop lying to yourself, and stop pretending that the only reason for your concern is that you're thinking of him. No, you're not. You're whining because when he's not playing, the Tide's chance of winning every single game  and winning a championship for your tribe favorite football team goes down. You aren't anxious for Tua. You're anxious for yourself.

You've waited since January to get the chance to cheer and brag and strut again. You realize that a healthy Tua is a big reason why you've been able to relax and enjoy a 7-0 record and No. 1 ranking in the polls. Bama's doing the work. They're getting ish done and he's kickin' ass and takin' names and he's why.

Then Tua goes and does something hasty or, in your estimation, "ill-advised." As if you had taken that snap, rolled to your left and would not have gotten your ankle rolled up a split second after your "well-advised" decision to hold that ball just one more fraction of a second.

There are 10 other gifted athletes sharing the field with Tua Tagovailoa. They make him better; he makes them better. It's a team. They play together. You're on the team, too. You cheer and they play. Coaches make judgments and decisions and you don't. You're ok when they're ok. What?

Tua is the most remarkable athlete to play quarterback at Alabama in my memory. He may be the best ever. He's certainly the most selfless I've ever seen, so the selfishness of fans venting on talk radio, social media and even water cooler soapboxes is appalling. For cripes sake... the guy is trying to make a play against Alabama's most storied rival. At home. In a night game. With 100,000 or so watching in person and millions more watching via live TV. At age 21. Would I be brave when I was that age...

You have the gall to complain? You act like your real concern is his health and well-being. Be honest. Your real fear is that without Tua, your team isn't good enough to win it all. By extension, you might look bad and you might have to face tribes fans of other teams if your tribe team isn't the very best.

Thankfully, Tua is not seriously injured. He will heal. He's under the care of the best physicians in college sports medicine. His tenacity and spirit is unquestionable. He'll be fine, but I seriously wonder whether some fans are healthy enough not to look for a scapegoat if the tribe doesn't finish first.

It's just a game. He's just 21. He'll be fine and so will you. If you want to be.

Roll Tide.

Bama QB Tua Tagovailoa undergoes surgery for high-ankle sprain

The bad news is that Tua Tagovailoa sprained his ankle.

The good news is twofold: It's not the same ankle he injured against UGA in the SEC Championship Game and; it is the same surgery he had last year. The new technique had him near 100% by the time Oklahoma showed up in the playoff semifinal.

Via ESPN with a statement from Coach Nick Saban:

"Our physicians performed a successful tight-rope procedure on his right ankle this morning," Alabama coach Nick Saban said in a statement. "This is the same injury, but the opposite ankle that Tua injured last season. Tua will miss next week's game against Arkansas, but we expect a full and speedy recovery."

...

Tagovailoa, who currently leads the FBS in QBR (95.6), has thrown 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

The junior from Hawaii had the "tightrope" procedure on his other ankle following the SEC Championship Game last season and returned in time to compete in the College Football Playoff.

I dunno about y'all, but I really wish he'd stop trying to be a hero. The boy might get hurt, or something.

Alabama Crimson Tide is becoming the team the nation feared it would be

Giving up 28 points to a "middlin'" Texas A&M team would have led to pearl clutching and hauling out of the fainting couches just 10 years ago. I admit to feeling a little light-headed after the Aggies' opening drive. That drive ate half of the first quarter, took 14 plays and resulted in the first opening drive TD Bama has given up all season. But by the time the teams trotted into the locker room with the Tide up 24-13, you knew that this was gonna be one for the good guys.

Aggie QB Kellen Mond was the only real weapon Jimbo Fisher had in his arsenal and he got 90 yards on the ground and 264 through the air. Most of it was in garbage time and stats don't tell the story of how the Tide defense handled him. Terrell Lewis, Christian Barmore and Anfernee Jennings weren't letting the Aggies do anything when they needed to. There's no substitute for the combo of depth and experience in the front seven and Alabama is developing both. Splendidly.

On the other side of the ball, the gradual change from the pass-first attack of early September into the deadly efficient balanced pro set we'll need in November and beyond is nearly complete. As this space predicted weeks ago, guard Deonte Brown is changing the whole texture of the Tide ground attack. Alabama ran the ball when they wanted to and threw it when they wanted to, mostly with positive results. Brown was 350+ pounds of murder against Aggie defenders and regularly terrorized the second level. Accordingly, Najee Harris and Brian Robinson combined for 165 yards.

Tua Tagovailoa made only two mistakes, but both were in the red zone. One was a failure to read a fake blitz and resulted in the season's first INT. The other was a miscommunication with WR Jerry Jeudy. Other than that, he was Heisman efficient. He hit seven different receivers for 295 yards and three scores and set a school record for career TD passes. What's scariest for all future opponents is that he's getting even better. He's checking down his receivers to find the open man and he's gaining more confidence. He's improvising as the play develops and making stuff happen instead of panicking ala the 2018 SEC Championship and that Clemson nightmare.

Bama needs to tweak the red zone performance. We need to see fewer penalties--especially the ones that suggest a lack of composure and personal discipline. Defensive consistency needs to improve--there's no such thing as taking a play off and letting the other guys break out and make a play.  Yes, there's lots of young blood on the D side of the ball but a missed tackle is a lack of effort, not a lack of ability. These are not fatal flaws though, and they can all be outgrown.

What we're seeing is a talented, well coached and very deep football team hitting mid-season stride just in time. With LSU, Auburn and Georgia or Florida still ahead, we're about where we'd like to be.

Bama faces a bit of a test on the road

After a week off, Alabama takes a rested team into Kyle Field, taking on the Texas A&M Aggies in CBS' Game of the Week. If this game is still competitive at halftime, the Tide could be in for its first real challenge.

Last season in Tuscaloosa, the Aggies' QB Kellen Mond rolled up almost 300 yards of offense and A&M scored 23 points. Mond has shown bursts of greatness so far in 2019 amid long stretches of ho-hum. At home and with almost half of the season under his belt, he faces a defense with questions at right defensive end and an inside linebacking corps that's still finding itself. Coach Jimbo Fisher is a well-respected offensive mind and we can expect him to probe Saban's 3-4 Over/Under scheme for weaknesses. We shouldn't be surprised if A&M puts 20 or more on the board again.

As we explored in this space just before the Ole Miss game, Alabama's offense is changing in a potentially profound way. What we didn't know then was that Center Chris Owens is nursing a leg injury that will surely keep him out, causing a shift that gets Deonte 'Cornbread' Brown a lot of time at guard or tackle. Deonte is a true difference maker in the running attack and his continued improvement and enmeshment into the offensive line rotation is a key to building the balanced attack Alabama will need later in the season. A respectable runnung game is important to keeping the ferocious defenses of LSU, Auburn and maybe Georgia and Clemson out of QB Tua Tagovailoa's face.

We also know that Tua is nearly perfect now with 1,700+ passing yards, 23 TD's, 0 INT's and an eye-popping 76% completion rate. We further know that Alabama has an NFL-caliber receiving corps and Tua's newest ability to check through receivers after the snap has them at the top of college football.

This game shouldn't be competitive at halftime. But if it is, and Kyle Field's legendary 12th Man comes roarin' out later in the game, we might just see what the 2019 installment of the Crimson Tide is really made of.

Tua Tagovailoa has become a better quarterback than Jalen Hurts

Some Tide Fans may strongly disagree with this conclusion. I fully expect to get some flack for expressing it. Oh, well. How many other fanbases can even have this discussion?  You, dear readers, and discussions like this one are the reason why the CFB media hate Alabama football. So... onwards.

The September 14, 2019 game against Gamecocks in Columbia, South Carolina has convinced me. Allow me to try and convince you that

Tua > Jalen

In the 2018 season, Jalen Hurts swallowed his pride and accepted his role as the backup quarterback to the sensational and immensely talented Tua Tagovailoa. Even after leading the 2017 team to the national championship game against Georgia, Hurts became the more-than-capable backup in a quarterback depth chart unequaled in college football.

Hurts' greatest weakness: An all-to-quick willingness to pull the ball down and run when the target receiver in a pass play was covered. If the receiver wasn't open or blew his route, Hurts used his God-given athletic talent to make something happen on the ground. Prior to the 2018 Championship Game, no one had fielded the defensive talent and coaching acumen to take away Hurts' first receiver and limit his scrambling. Georgia and Saban disciple Kirby Smart brought that in the first half.

Master Nick Saban inserted Tua Tagovailoa in the second half. Georgia had no answer for Tua's different skill set and the rest is football history.

Tagovailoa brings a similar-but-distinct talent to the quarterback position. He has a great arm, he's pinpoint accurate and he's a formidable ball carrier. Tua also has an uncanny ability to read defenses at the line of scrimmage and check into the right play before the ball is snapped. Jalen can read defenses, but not like Tua can.

Prior to the 2018 SEC Championship game, no one could stop Tua. Again Georgia and Smart brought skills and abilities what no one else had. Again Master Saban shapeshifted, swapped in Jalen for Tua and...

For the second time in two seasons, Georgia had no good answer for a backup quarterback coming in and snatching a sure win away from them. Just like the Championship Game the previous January, the entry of the backup signal caller completely changed the texture and flow of the game and just like last time, Alabama snatched the glory from Georgia at the very end.

This time though, Alabama ran into a Clemson defense that had the athleticism and coaching talent to show Tua one thing in the pre-snap formation and  drop or shift into something different. Tua simply couldn't adapt quickly enough. His greatest weakness was an inability to check down into a receiver rotation and get the ball to the guy who's open.

Take away what he thought he was being given and Tua played the 2019 Championship Game almost like a lost child. Inserting Jalen didn't help--Clemson had seen this trick played twice before and wasn't falling for it. Alabama got whipped in their only loss of the 2018 season. It is what it is, aight?

Something has changed though,  y'all.  In the first three games of the 2019 season, Tua has shown that he has begun conquering that weakness.  In fact, he may already have done so and is now honing himself into a breathtakingly dangerous quarterback.  He has learned that when the defense takes something away, it must give up something else. Tua has learned how to quickly find out what has been given up, and put the ball where the defense doesn't want it to be.

South Carolina s a talented and well coached team. So was Duke (New Mexico State was a tackle-duumy scrimmage). Tua carved those defenses up with pre-snap reads, methodical check-downs and his ever present pinpoint accuracy.

Honestly, Tua has become a better, faster, stronger AJ McCarron. McCarron is a gifted pre-snap reader and receiver checker-downer. He won two BCS Championships and shredded Alabama passing records. The only things he lacked was sprinter run speed and a fleet of 4-6 elite receivers. Tua has all of that and McCarron's ability to find the right guy at the right time. He's in the process of re-shredding MCcarron's records.

Against Duke on a neutral field and South Carolina on the road, Tua is 54-67 for 780 yards and nine touchdowns. For all three games to date, he is 70-91 for 1,002 yards and 11 TDs. His completion percentage is 77%, he has a QB Rating of 213.4, he has yet to throw a single interception and he has a touchdown pass for every eight times he drops back to throw. These numbers are obscene.

Like all Tide faithful, I hold a special place in my heart for Jalen Hurts. His willingness to give it all for Alabama in unquestionable. His sense of being a team player exemplifies what Nick Saban hopes every one of his pupils develops. He demonstrates the kind of selflessness and humility that every parent wants their kids to show in everything they do. When asked to be a leader, Jalen is a leader. When asked to be a clipboard carrier, Jalen is the best clipboard carrier ever. He is 100% awesome and we are blessed to have had him on our championship teams. I wish him the very best at Oklahoma.

The Sooners are perfectly suited to a man of his talent, experience and character. He will leave Norman a better place for having him, just as he left Tuscaloosa with the gratitude of the Bama Nation. However, Jalen is still being Jalen and the best thing he has going for him at Oklahoma is that he won't have to face many defenses built by Saban or his pupils between now and the Holiday Season.

 I honestly hope Bama doesn't have to face him in the 2019 playoffs, should both the Tide and Sooners make it that far this year. He is a dangerous man with the ball in his hands. If that game happens though, Oklahoma will look at the aftermath and say, "we wish we had gotten Tua when we had the chance to recruit him because Tua's even better than Jalen."

Finally: Alabama 2019 Season Preview

The Alabama Crimson Tide wants to build a bridge between last year's almost perfect season and another National Championship (sorry, that was irresistible).

Nick Saban wants to do that by going back to the style of football he used to rebuild the Tide program into a perennial SEC and national powerhouse. He wants more power football. More physical defense. Always reliable special teams.

Yes, please!

Saban's brief experiment with "a more explosive offense" was productive--Bama won two SEC championships and three straight appearances in the National Championship game.  Bama has beaten Georgia and Clemson more than once each with that style of football, but almost all of the wins were high scoring slugfests. The two losses to Clemson were games played on Clemson's terms, not Alabama's.

Coach says "no more" to basketball-on-turf.

For 2019, the ground-oriented pro-style scheme is back. We still have the best QB in the nation in Tua Tagovailoa. We still have the nation's best receivers in Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle and Henry Ruggs III. Tyrell Shavers also returns, and DeVonta Smith (who has to sit out a suspension Saturday) is also back.

Behind Tua is a fleet of bowling balls for running backs: Najee Harris, Brian Robinson, (both sitting one half today), and redshirt Senior De’Marquise Lockridge are all beasts. Athletic scatsters Chadarius Townsend and freshman sensation Keilan Robinson can move chains in a hurry.

The offensive line was the weakest link in the 2018 squad, and that weak spot wasn't exploited until Bama met their physical equals-or-betters in the post season. It will be a question mark again in 2019. Bama is loaded with very young four and five star talent. The key will be to get the best five guys at their best positions and pray that they can play together as a unit all season long. Think about the 2011-2012 teams that won back-to-back titles, and you'll visualize what can happen.

Saban's teams have never had bad defenses. Chuck Oliver, Jesse Palmer and other talking heads pointing to the scores of Bama's games against Clemson and Georgia are missing the fact that the offense had problems staying on the field, converting third downs and scoring in the red zone. Consider: In the second half against Clemson, Bama had three trips in the red zone and scored zero points. If we see the offensive throwback to 2011-2012, we'll see the throwback to every Saban defense ever fielded.

Saban's 3-4 over under defensive strategy is built to take away or punish plays in the middle and make quarterbacks beat physical, fast and well-coached backfields outside. Outside plays are always longer, and always longer is always harder. Always harder means less likely. It's smart defense and it usually wins championships.

Up front, graduation sent a lot of talent to the NFL but the beastly beast Raekwon Davis is back. He'll have a lot of talent with him in the trenches but it will feature a ton of very young talent. Fortunately, the kinds of skills a Saban defense needs up front are talents that come from the womb. Expect to see a lot of new faces and expect to see a lot of enthusiasm and athleticism. Expect penalties, too.

Behind the line, Bama is again loaded with talent. Expected stud Terrell Lewis is finally ready and healthy to make noise at linebacker (he sits out one half today, too), but Dylan Moses is out for the year with a knee injury. Christopher Allen and Anfernee Jennings are back, though.

Saban's defenses always feature the nation's best corners and safeties. Expect no less in 2019. Coach was a defensive back in his playing days. As an assistant coach, he always tutored DB's and he is the DB position coach at Bama. Trevon Diggs. Patrick Surtain. Shyheim Carter. Jared Mayden and Jeffery Carter. All of these guys will play on Sundays in a few years. In fact, man-for-man, the Tide has what could be Saban's deepest and most talented secondary ever.

Note this: The 2019 secondary was hand-picked and personally built to frustrate the Jake Fromms, Trevor Lawrences and yes... even the Jalen Hurts that Bama is likely to face should we be so fortunate to see an SEC Title and Playoff berth.

Special teams... Can we please just see progress, if not perfection?

This is one of the most talented teams in Alabama history. Honestly, we haven't seen this depth and quality at least since 2011-2012, and an argument can be credibly made that we haven't seen it since the NCAA clamped down on scholarship limits to keep Coach Paul W.  Bryant from stockpiling all the best dudes.

On the other hand, this is also a very young team. With youth expect mistakes, and with mistakes, a loss is not unforeseeable. This may not be the year we mount the 18th trophy. But the talent is there and if Bama makes the title game healthy, they'll be the odds on favorite to win it all.

Roll Tide

Tua Tagovailoa and the dreaded ‘injury bug’

Tua Tagovailoa was held out of the Manning Passing Academy workout today, with what was described as a ‘slight’ hamstring injury. Social media promptly exploded with worry.

A slight hamstring injury incurred by Bama’s starting QB is taken about as lightly as a ‘minor plumbing emergency’ in a houseful of teenaged females. Somebody had better do something, and in a hurry or as TideSports.com’s Cecil Hurt put it, “it’s the end of the world as we know it.”

Is this going to be a continual source of anxiety for Alabama fans? Tua found himself banged up towards the end of last season, which of course culminated in Jalen Hurts’ redemption story comeback against Georgia in the 2018 SEC Championship Game. Tua went on to struggle mightily against a very athletic, physical and well-prepared Clemson defense in the National Championship.

There’s no sense in spending a lot of emotional (analog) or social media (digital) bandwidth hand-wringing over what probably is just a little tweak. Hamstring pulls are notoriously persistent and it’s best to address any training and prep deficiencies before they can seriously affect game outcomes. That’s  what camps like the Manning academy are for.

But never underestimate the worrywart capacity of Bama fans. We worry about stuff like making sure houndstooth patterns meet specifications and which side of front door we choose to hang the Bama flag.

Bama has its hands full with Oklahoma

Most of the media expect a Saturday night shootout when Bama takes the field against the 12-1 Oklahoma Sooners. Most Bama fans think it will be just another step on the path to glory. For once in forever, I think the media has it right.

Sooner QB Kyler Murray deserved to win the Heisman Trophy. So did the Tide’s Tua Tagovailoa but only one player can win it at a time and Tua did appear to be a mere human in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. Murray’s stats are better than Tua’s and yes, part of that fact is because Kyler played more snaps in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Tua was usually watching Jalen Hurts inflict his own brand of pain in the second half. Murray has  more attempts, more completions, more yards per completion and more TD’s. But he also has more sacks and more INT’s—more on that in a moment or three.

Bama fans need to accept that a healthy Murray is a handful, especially with the corps of speedy, athletic receivers he has. Oh, and with a tandem of talented running backs. Any of the offensive guys Coach Lincoln Riley puts on the field could start and star for Alabama. They are going to score a lot of points against the Tide and by the time the 4th quarter gets into under 10:00 to play, Bama’s D will be tired of chasing Murray and tackling Sooner playmakers.

But I don’t believe Alabama will just have to outscore Oklahoma to beat them, because while the defense may get tired it’s just as likely that this won’t be as big a deal. The Tide defense continues to get better with each game.  It practices against a high octane offense every snap, and has vanquished some not-too-shabby SEC teams en route to 13-0. Quinnen Williams is sure to be a disruptive force up front. Mack and Anfernee are terrors backing the line and Surtain has turned into a frighteningly good weapon in the secondary. There will be plays where Murray is running for his life and where Q blows up the whole Sooner OL.

And then there’s Tua, who also deserved to win the Heisman and who wouldn’t be wrong in making this game a statement to the voters who had him second. Unlike Murray, Tua won’t be facing the best defense in the SEC. He’ll be facing a DINO--defense in name only. In fact, in his game preview Tidefans’ Jess Nicholas notes that Oklahoma’s highly suspect strength of schedule is a reason to suspect whether OU’s offensive line can hold up against Q and the gang.

It’s worth noting that Oklahoma has had Bama’s number and owns the series record. Alabama is 1-3-1 in the series, with a three game losing streak and a 45-31 humiliation of a Nick Saban team after the 2013 season. Football is a funny game. Not funny hah-hah. Funny strange. Alabama can exorcise some old demons Saturday night.

I think they will, in a high scoring affair.

Alabama 52, Oklahoma 42

Tua Tagovailoa didn’t win the Heisman Trophy, and here’s why that’s ok.

I was as disappointed as every other Bama fan on the planet when Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray edged out Tua Tagovailoa for the highest individual honor in college football. But I’m ok with that, and here’s why.

• He’s only a sophomore and if he stays healthy through the 2019 season, he’s a slam dunk to be back in New York City next December.
• He’s a pure-hearted class act who will look at this the same way he sees an incompletion. Pray. Get up. Try harder.
• There’s a lot of Bama fatigue out there. The Alabama Crimson Tide is a football program that people are tired of talking about.
• There’s a lot of Nick Saban fatigue, too. But Nick Saban talks back and he’s not often kind to the media when he speaks to or about them. Rat poison, and all.
• Tua will use this as motivation to play his best game on December 29, when he faces Murray in College Football Playoff the Orange Bowl.

Don’t be ticked off, y’all. All three finalists deserved the trophy and Kyler Murray was nothing short of sensational this year.

This very well could be just the impetus that the whole Alabama football team uses to crush their remaining two opponents and be the first team in the CFP era to win back-to-back championships. Just like Alabama was the first to do it in the BCS era for the 2011-2012 seasons.

Alabama still has a lot to prove, and so does Mr. Tagovailoa.

Watch out! Here comes The Citadel!

Thank God right now that the Alabama Crimson Tide is just a football team and not an enemy military force bent on ending the American way of life. Because if we were bad guys like that, Bama would stand no chance. Nick Saban would be forced to suffer the humiliation of surrendering the team colors at the 50-yard line to a grim-faced cadre of highly trained and professional warriors.

The Citadel is an institution with a rich military history. Founded in 1842, soldiers from The Citadel fired the first shots of the Civil War when they opened fire on the sneaky Union steamship Star of the West, that was trying to resupply Fort Sumter. During World War II, The Citadel had the highest percentage of any American college student body serving in the military and all but 46 of its living graduates were members of the armed forces.  Every member of the Classes of 1917 and 1918 served in World War I, and only two members of the Class of 1944 graduated because the rest entered military service and fought in World War II.

In any conflict though, the outcome is determined by where the battles are met. Alas for the fightin’ Bulldogs who are coming to Tuscaloosa, where they will be soundly defeated by a superior football force.

This game might be interesting (at least through the first quarter), as The Citadel runs an old-school multiple option offense that could churn up some yardage and shorten the game. Bama might not get as many possessions as they did against teams like Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Arkansas.

Tua Tagovailoa is expected to be at or near 100% and will likely go back to the usual routine of watching the second half from the sideline. Jalen Hurts is still not healthy—that high ankle sprain is doing what high ankle sprains do by healing slowly. Mac Jones will get some needed reps at full speed and hopefully get some confidence he’s lacked when the offense is running at full speed.

A lot of folks in the media are wagging their heads at Alabama hosting such an overmatched opponent but what’s an SEC team supposed to do—schedule a Notre Dame after a conference schedule that broke a gifted Kevin Sumlin and sent a cocky Urban Meyer to the cupcake land of the Big 10? Get real, haters.

Alabama 49, The Citadel 0

The College Football National Championship will be decided Saturday night, y’all

If LSU can’t beat Alabama in Death Valley, at night, in front of 100,000 screaming crazy drunk Cajuns, nobody can. You might as well just ship the natty trophy to Tuscaloosa.

There is nobody else on the Bama schedule or in the likely College Football National Championship Playoff field with the personnel and scheme that can hang with the Crimson Tide.

Both teams are coming off bye weeks. Traditionally, the team with the most emotional investment suffers from a week off because it interrupts the momentum of success that the emotion is built on. That team is LSU, but the pause will be offset a little by the night kickoff and the crazy coon ass energy in the stands.

Alabama comes in with a Sabanesque business as usual attitude, having already sampled the road in Columbia and Knoxville.

LSU’s defense is what has brought them to this point. Defensive Coordinator Dave Aranda’s base package is a 3-4 scheme that looks a lot like a Nick Saban strategy. Their problem though is a lack of true 3-4 talent and depth, forcing Aranda to rely on some nickel lineups and even a 5-2 look that’s designed to confuse the offense and create opportunities to disrupt. LSU is so-so when it comes to total defense but they’re 7th in scoring defense.

Their star defensive player, Devin White, must sit out the first half Saturday night due to a targeting penalty called on him against Mississippi State two weeks ago. 

They will be sorely tested by an Alabama offense that has yet to see a defense they can’t destroy by halftime. Starting QB Tua Tagavailoa is an absolute phenomenon (and he’s only a true sophomore!) and he has a young-but-freakishly-talented corps of wide receivers. Behind Tua is a fleet of at least three bowling balls for tailbacks, and the studly Jalen Hurts waits in the wings as Tua’s backup. LSU can’t afford to let Bama get up by two scores in the first quarter but my sense is that this will happen, anyway.

Alabama’s very young but very talented defense faces an LSU offense that Les Miles would be very proud to call his own. QB Joe Burrow is a so-so passer and a decent runner when the field is wide open before him. He managed to make a few plays against Georgia but was only 50% and no TD’s. He’s 53% overall with only six TD’s and three INT’s. Burrow in the pocket is not going to beat Alabama, and Burrow has only so-so backs to carry the ball. There is no Leonard Fournette at LSU this year.

Alabama’s defense is getting better as the season progresses. The injury bug that bit so hard last year has gone elsewhere in 2018, so the unit has been developing together all year long. Expect the Tide front seven to get LSU’s offensive line out of position from time to time, and for Williams, Davis and Buggs to wreak havoc. A very young defensive backfield has also gotten better through the first eight weeks but is still inexperienced and somewhat thin. One reason why teams have been able to score 20+ points on this defense is opposing receivers running free in long yardage downs.

Bama’s only weakness remains special teams. Tide fans should pray this game doesn’t come down to a special teams play or three.

It shouldn’t, though—the game of football is always and everywhere won or lost in the trenches. Alabama’s OL appears better than LSU’s front seven, and LSU’s OL might hold its own against Bama’s front seven for a half. If Alabama gets up by 14 or 21 before halftime… well… you’ve seen that movie before.

Bama wins another one comfortably.

Alabama 44, LSU 17