This is the first poll of Alabama from a reliable data geek since creepy Roy Moore announced his desire for a second chance at the U.S. Senate. It has good news and well, sorta bad news.
The good news is that Roy Moore polls a distant third at 13% of likely Republican voters.
The bad news is that former Auburn head football coach leads the field at 29%. This only bad news if you’re a die hard bammer (like me) and would have to really hold the nose really, really hard to vote for the coach who ran up a streak of six straight wins against Alabama. If you’re new to the state and haven’t declared a faction, or if you’re All In the Fambly, this is not bad at all.
We bammers at least have Bradley Byrne, who received his law degree at the Capstone. He’s at a respectable 21% in the poll and if the numbers hold, the runoff would be between Aubie Tuberville and Bammer Byrne. Oh, what fun that would be.
There are a few things at work here that tell the astute observer that Moore is toast:
- President Trump’s “Roy Moore cannot win” tweet. A statement like that from Trump is a kiss of death.
- Tuberville is very Trump-like in appeal. He talks the conservative talk. He’s never held public office. He runs his mouth a lot. Trumpy!
- Fundraising in-state. Moore starts with a backpack full of legal bills and Alabama’s deep pockets don’t pay for losers.
- Fundraising out-of-state. Moore had lots of national populist support last go-round that isn’t there this time. Steve Bannon and Breitbart News are even less interested in Moore than Goat Hillians.
- National GOP disgust at another Roy Moore run. Mash here for a sampling of what the DC Republicans think.