Wednesday, June 26, 2019

First reliable poll of Alabama has Roy Moore at … 13 percent?!?


This is the first poll of Alabama from a reliable data geek since creepy Roy Moore announced his desire for a second chance at the U.S. Senate. It has good news and well, sorta bad news.

The good news is that Roy Moore polls a distant third at 13% of likely Republican voters.

The bad news is that former Auburn head football coach leads the field at 29%. This only bad news if you’re a die hard bammer (like me) and would have to really hold the nose really, really hard to vote for the coach who ran up a streak of six straight wins against Alabama. If you’re new to the state and haven’t declared a faction, or if you’re All In the Fambly, this is not bad at all.

We bammers at least have Bradley Byrne, who received his law degree at the Capstone. He’s at a respectable 21% in the poll and if the numbers hold, the runoff would be between Aubie Tuberville and Bammer Byrne. Oh, what fun that would be.

There are a few things at work here that tell the astute observer that Moore is toast:
  • President Trump’s “Roy Moore cannot win” tweet. A statement like that from Trump is a kiss of death.
  • Tuberville is very Trump-like in appeal. He talks the conservative talk. He’s never held public office. He runs his mouth a lot. Trumpy!
  • Fundraising in-state. Moore starts with a backpack full of legal bills and Alabama’s deep pockets don’t pay for losers.
  • Fundraising out-of-state. Moore had lots of national populist support last go-round that isn’t there this time. Steve Bannon and Breitbart News are even less interested in Moore than Goat Hillians.
  • National GOP disgust at another Roy Moore run. Mash here for a sampling of what the DC Republicans think.
All normal righties need to worry about now is that these numbers hold through the next 11 months and Moore fails to make the runoff. Then, once the bona fide candidate emerges we can get to snatching the Sessions Seat back from the usurper.


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