Monday, October 8, 2018

Democrats may have wrecked their chances for House control

Image result for michael avenattiA heartfelt thank you to creepy porn lawyer Michael Avenatti. For he has blessed President. Donald. Trump. in ways he never imagined.

If Democrats fail to win control of at least one house of Congress in the 2018 midterms, it will be because they overplayed a bad hand in the Brett Kavanaugh Confirmation Debacle. And Avenatti held the losing hole cards.

Historically, the party not in control of the White House loses a significant number of Congressional seats in midterm elections. It has been a traditional means for the electorate to communicate that executive overreach will not be tolerated. But when the party out of power itself overreaches—as it did with their Kavanaugh Debacle—history rewards the aggrieved.

Currently, The RCP Average generic ballot poll has the Dems with a +6.6 advantage. Due to the geographic advantage Republicans have owned since the bloody red waves of 2010 and 2014, this translates into a dead heat. At no time since January of this year have Democrats enjoyed a +10.0 advantage, a number that has typically signaled a midterm Congressional turnover for Democrats (see 2006 for example).

Democrats can thank ex-President Obama for this—the midterms of 2010 and 2014 destroyed the state and local power and infrastructure that used to be their advantage in get-out-the-vote operations. That apparatus is in control of the GOP now. The short analysis is that if the Democrats want to wrest control of gavels and committees on Capitol Hill, they will need a repeat of 2004, and today’s polls say that ain’t happening, y’all.

Had Democrats gagged the creepy porn lawyer and told him “nay, thou shalt NOT pile on with even more ridiculous allegations,” Christine Blasey-Ford may have successfully derailed Brett Kavanaugh’s ascension to SCOTUS.

They didn’t, and look what’s happening now.


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