Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Non-Sports: Union households in Wisconsin handed Walker the win yesterday

You could make this statement about any group that represented a significant portion of the electorate in yesterday’s Wisconsin recall election. This is especially true when some part of that group breaks one way or the other. You need not get a majority; only enough to make the difference.

When the key voting bloc is the one responsible for having the recall election called in the first place, it’s the height of cruel political irony.

The data show that had union households marched lockstep with their leadership and rejected the Governor accused of everything but eating the firstborn children of public employee union members, Milwaukee’s Tom Barrett would be making the news show rounds and the media would be trumpeting how the election was a victory for labor, Obama and the Democrat Party.

It was not to be, however.

In the screen snippet below, The numbers for Walker are on the left, Barrett in the middle and an independent candidate on the far right.


When 100% of the precincts were in, a total of 2,496,300 votes were cast for the two candidates, with 1,334,430 going to Walker and 1,161,870 going to Barrett.

The exit poll data show that the electorate consisted of approximately 33% union households and 38% of them voted for Walker.

Doing the math: 0.33 x 0.38 x 2,496,300 = 167,338

If those voters had gone with Barrett, the outcome would have been 1,329,208 votes for the Democrat challenger and 1,167,092 for Walker, representing a nearly 180-degree difference from the actual outcome.

So, if you happen to live in the Badger State and bump into a union member today, be sure and say THANKS.

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