I Bleed Crimson Red: Weekly Jobless Claims

Showing posts with label Weekly Jobless Claims. Show all posts

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Weekly jobless claims take another dip, down 21,000

Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Website:

In the week ending Oct. 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 434,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 455,000. The 4-week moving average was 453,250, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 458,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Oct. 16, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 3.6 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct. 16 was 4,356,000, a decrease of 122,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,478,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,447,250, a decrease of 38,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,485,750.

These are the last weekly claims figures to be released prior to next week’s midterm election. New applications for unemployment compensation have been stuck in a range between 450,000 and 475,000 for months, now.

Half of last week’s decrease of 23,000 new claims was accounted for by an upward revision in the previous week’s data and the moving average remains stubbornly stuck above 450,000.

While there is nothing particularly rosy or damaging in this week’s data, it still highlights a very weak job market and an economy struggling to keep its head above water. We should get confirmation of the sluggish economy with tomorrow’s estimate of Q3 GDP growth. Analysts expect something on the order of 1.5% to 2.0% annual growth.

It’s in this setting that voters will go to polls next week and issue a referendum on the efficacy of President Obama’s economic policies.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Weekly Jobless Claims take another dip, down 23,000

Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Website:

In the week ending Oct. 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 434,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 455,000. The 4-week moving average was 453,250, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 458,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Oct. 16, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 3.6 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct. 16 was 4,356,000, a decrease of 122,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,478,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,447,250, a decrease of 38,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,485,750.

Half of last week’s decrease of 23,000 new claims was accounted for by an upward revision in the previous week’s data and the moving average remains stubbornly stuck above 450,000.

It’s in this setting that voters will go to polls next week and issue a referendum on the efficacy of President Obama’s economic policies.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Weekly jobless claims take another slight dip

Fresh from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Website:

In the week ending Oct. 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 445,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 456,000. The 4-week moving average was 455,750, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average of 458,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Sept. 25, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 3.6 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Sept. 25 was 4,462,000, a decrease of 48,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,510,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,510,750, a decrease of 27,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,538,500.

The fact that it’s a positive number is its only positive feature. If we were really recovering, we would see much larger decreases in weekly jobless claims.

Tomorrow morning, we’ll get the last clear pre-election snapshot of the employment picture with the release of September payroll data, non-farm employment and the unemployment rate.

Yesterday’s release of ADP’s National Employment Report indicated weakness, but the Department of Labor has a much larger reach in terms of sample size and survey depth. As Ed Morrissey of Hot Air points out, the ADP number is more of a directional signpost than it is a determinative or predictive indicator.

And, as discussed at Calculated Risk, the 39,000 loss was far, far below forecaster estimates, so the signpost is clearly pointing down.

Today’s weekly jobless claims data indicates that the figures we get tomorrow probably won’t be as bad as the ADP report suggests. The weekly figures have been stubbornly hanging around a 4-week moving average of about 440,000 to 450,000 for the entire month of September.

At any rate, only a stellar increase of 100,000+ new non-farm payrolls and a 0.1 to 0.2% decrease in the unemployment rate will give Democrats something to go home and talk about. There is nothing in any of the data we’ve seen for September to indicate that’s going to happen.

The labor market remains stubbornly weak and should stay that way through the calendar year.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Weekly jobless claims take a dip

Fresh from the Dept of Labor website:

In the week ending Sept. 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 465,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 453,000. The 4-week moving average was 463,250, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 466,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Sept. 11, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 3.6 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Sept. 11 was 4,489,000, a decrease of 48,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,537,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,519,500, an increase of 2,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,517,000.

It’s worth noting that for the second week in a row, the previous week’s revisions all but wiped out the gains announced with the initial release. Last week’s revisions produced a net gain of 1,000. This week’s revision produced a zero gain, and this week’s initial release shows a loss of 12,000 for a three week trend of a weakening job market.

Markets probably won’t like this news.

Existing housing sales data are out later this morning. Expectations are for another contraction. And this is “absolutely moving in the right direction?”

Update: Existing home sales came in somewhat higher than expected. Analysts were expecting continued contraction but the period saw a decent 7.6% increase. The increase was a “bounce” off of last month’s historic low. We still have about a year’s worth of inventory to work down, which should continue to pressure home prices. While that’s not good for those looking to sell, it’s good for a potential upward trend through the fall.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Weekly jobless claims post small decline

Fresh from the Dept of Labor Website:

In the week ending Sept. 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 450,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 453,000. The 4-week moving average was 464,750, a decrease of 13,500 from the previous week's revised average of 478,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Sept. 4, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 3.6 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Sept. 4 was 4,485,000, a decrease of 84,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,569,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,503,000, a decrease of 7,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,510,500.

The advance figure from last week was 451,000 so the week ending September 11’s figures would have represented a seasonally adjusted decrease of 1,000. However, recall that last week’s figures included estimates for nine states that didn’t report because of the Labor Day holiday.

Jobless claims should be falling if the economy is really recovering, not hovering back and forth around a stubborn moving average of 450,000 or so.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Jobless claims about as expected, but it’s still not good news

The US Department of Labor released the latest weekly jobless claims data today. These numbers are about what I expected. In the week ending Aug. 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 473,000, a decrease of 31,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 504,000 and despite the slight decrease, it’s still not good news. The 4-week moving average was 486,750, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 483,500. Last week’s 504,000 (revised upwards from 500,000) was something of a fluke—some decent numbers rolled off the seasonal adjustment while some really BAD numbers moved on.

Last week’s jobless claims decrease is not “unexpected,” nor does it indicate improvement in the prospects for reducing unemployment, nor does is show that we’re absolutely “moving in the right direction,” as Joe Biden exclaimed earlier this week. Don’t buy the CNN/CNBC/Reuters media spin. The job market has retreated into a shell, and businesses are getting by with who and what they’ve got until the future becomes less clouded with uncertainty (a bit more on that later).

The four week moving average, used to smooth out fluctuations from week-to-week and mitigate the impacts of weather and other factors contributing to volatility, is at its highest level in nine months. This average has been in a fairly tight range between 450,000 and 500,000 since January, and nothing indicates that a breakout is imminent. It points to a very weak job market.

This economy needs to ADD jobs, not seek solace in reductions in the numbers of jobs lost. Increases in the numbers of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits are not good news, and do not point to an improvement in a very sluggish economy.

Employers are not adding jobs because of a climate of uncertainty. They are uncertain about the effects of Obamacare. They are uncertain about the effects of newly-passed financial regulation reform (which defines almost any enterprise as a “bank” if the engage in certain risk-control activities). They are uncertain about the effects of allowing the Bush-era tax cuts to sunset, which would raise taxes on Subchapter S corporations in which the small business owner claims profits on his personal income taxes. And, in an election year, they are uncertain about the business climate in 2011 and 2012.

Gimme some feedback in the comments.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Another “UNEXPECTED” tanking in weekly jobless claims data… UPDATED, 400,000 the new yardstick?

If this weren’t so pathetic, it would be comical.

via Reuters:

New US claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly climbed to a nine-month high last week, yet another setback to the frail economic recovery.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 500,000 in the week ended August 14, the highest since mid-November, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast claims slipping to 476,000 from the previously reported 484,000 the prior week, which was revised up to 488,000 in Thursday's report.

The temporary census jobs are gone. The stimulus money is all but spent. Last month’s non-farm payrolls showed a mere 71,000 new private sector jobs. Consumer prices are weak. Business inventories are piling up in the wake of sluggish consumer demand. Companies are sitting on huge sums of cash and cash-like liquid assets, fearing uncertainty for future demand. Economists are revising GDP forecasts from 2.0+ percent to 1.5- percent.

So why should we expect jobless claims to do anything but follow suit and circle the drain?

Update: I just read through the whole Reuters report, and nearly spit out my coffee when I caught this:

Claims have not come close to the 400,000 level that most analysts generally view as the dividing line between payrolls growth and contraction.

This is nothing more than an attempt to move the goalposts. “Most analysts” do not generally view the 400,000 threshold as the dividing line between payrolls growth and contraction. The real number is about one-quarter to one-half that, and real expansion would be indicated by a net decrease in jobless claims, not a net increase of a half million. There are no good reasons to white wash bad news, other than to lessen the impact.