Two “Blue Dog” Districts that are almost certain to flip

I’ve talked about and linked to Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight blog about 373,384,288 times during this election cycle.  I’ve also mentioned two key, southern Blue Dog Districts several times.  Those are MS-04, where conservative Democrat Gene Taylor is locked in a dogfight with Steven Palazzo; and AL-02, where conservative Democrat and former Montgomery mayor is locked in a battle with former Montgomery city council member Martha Roby.

As of tonight, Election Eve, Silver has both races flipping to the Republicans.

Click this link for his forecast for MS-04.

Click this link for his forecast for AL-02.

Early in this cycle, both of these seats looked like safe holds for the Democrats. Congressional Quarterly had them both reliably blue. But Taylor’s support has eroded quickly in the face of a fierce media campaign by Palazzo and Martha Roby’s been getting tremendous Tea Party and national GOP support.

As of the opening of polls tomorrow morning, it looks like they’re both going Crimson Red.

Gene Taylor, conservative Blue Dog from Mississippi, in trouble

As late as last week, Congressional Quarterly had the 4th Congressional District of Mississippi rated as Safe Democrat.

Today, it’s yellow—tossup.

Folks, Gene Taylor would never get elected as a Democrat in a state like California or Michigan.  He’s too conservative.  He’s the guy who said he voted for John McCain in 2008.  He also voted against Obamacare. He’s also one of the Democrats who said he’d support someone other than Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House.

But his challenger, Steven Palazzo, is flooding the south Mississippi airwaves with an impressive and positive ad, while Taylor has turned negative.

Palazzo is also running his ads on WBUV News Radio 104.9, a coastal Mississippi talk radio station with a strong conservative bent.  The people most interested in news and politics in the three most populous counties in the state listen to 104.9 (including me when I’m in the area for business).  I haven’t heard one of Taylor’s ads on that station, and neither has a business associate of mine who lives in Gulfport.

Taylor and Palazzo meet in their first and only debate of the campaign tonight at 6:00 pm CDT. You can listen live here.

At first, Taylor wouldn’t even respond to Palazzo’s requests for a debate.  That Taylor agreed, and that the debate is happening on the Friday night before the election, has to be a troubling omen for Democrats hoping to hold the seat.