Whose head rolls first: Malzahn or Miles?

I know this has nothing to do with Alabama football or politics, but I have to share this.

I had a very brief, yet very interesting conversation with two of my closest colleagues. One is a dyed-in-the-wool Aubie. The other is Deep Purple and Gold. I love’em both, they’re both good guys and damned good engineers. 

May God bless’em.

These two guys went at it like two brothers on different sides of the Mason-Dixon line in 1861. All I could do, and all I wished to do, was sit, listen, watch, and smile (evilly… I confess).

Among TideFans, We call that Schadenfreude. For those wer nicht Deutsch sprechen, that means taking pleasure from the pain of others, usually adversaries.

At 5:00-ish Saturday, the two teams collide at Jordan-Hare Stadium in what could be a pivotal game for both programs, neither of which is getting it done well enough for their respective fanbases. I know it’s anecdotal, but evidence is evidence.

LSU sits at 2-1, with an away loss to a decent, but beatable Wisconsin team. They’ve beaten Jacksonville State (Who?) and Mississippi State, and neither of those wins convinced Tiger fans about their team’s viability to win a title.

Auburn sits at 1-2, with their only win coming against Gus Malzahn’s old team, the Arkansas State Red Wolves. The only two teams considered quality opponents were Clemson in the season opener and Texas A&M. Clemson was the runner-up in last year’s National Championship game, but Texas A&M is still building and is considered so-so in the SEC West race. Auburn lost both and hasn’t won an SEC home game in two calendar years.

Two. Calendar. Years.

Either Auburn or LSU will come away with a loss Saturday night. Auburn has a surprisingly stout defense. LSU has one of the best running games in the conference. But neither team has a go-to guy at quarterback.

Both coaches have seats that can be generously described as “quite warm.” The loser Saturday night probably gets the heat turned up.

A lot.

So who do you think has his head on the chopping block? Does Malzie with another conference home loss? Does Miles with a close but competitive loss, albeit on the road?

We’ll See Saturday night. And one of my two freinds might not sleep well that night.

Troubling news from Knoxville

Partisan Tennessee Radio Talk Show Host Tony Basilio posted a troubling report regarding the state of the Volunteer football program last night (it’s hard to find the screed, but scroll down). Basilio is a 1990 graduate of the university and hosts a daily 11:00 – 1:00 broadcast covering Tennessee athletics on WVLZ-AM 1180.

He claims to have been told by several program insiders that the program has been melting down from the inside out all season long, and that there are deep divisions among both the team and the staff.

The worst of it is that head coach Derek Dooley, upon hearing reports of some of the behavior, shrugged it off and took no action.

---

I’ve spent several hours on the phone compiling a pretty good picture of what’s going on inside the football program at this point in time. What I’ve been granted [is] an insider’s glance to a program that is wrought with dissension. I’m talking player against player, coach against coach and player against training staff. This is more than just typical rivalries over offense versus defense in the coaching ranks or even personality conflicts. This goes much deeper. On the player side it’s not just a classic division over age, playing time or side of the football. UT football is a serious mess on and off the field.

One longtime member of the athletic department with inner knowledge of the football program told me the following on Monday evening. ‘I don’t know where to start. There are so many issues over here that need addressing besides talent on the football field. Dooley has his hands full. I’ve never seen a level of turmoil around anything the way it is here right now.’

Many were wondering what the outgoing seniors were talking about when they were mentioning younger guys concerned with their own agendas. Well, two guys they were definitely referring to are Tyler Bray and Da Rick Rogers.

Try this on for size: During the week of the Vandy game, Bray was asked in front of several upperclassmen by a member of the training staff if he completed a cursory workout exercise to which Bray shot back in the earshot of all ‘No. Not really. And I’m not going to do it. Why should I? Besides we’re only going to a shitty bowl game anyway.’ Sources tell me that the upperclassmen who heard this exchange were so incensed that they went to Derek Dooley who shrugged it off and did nothing about it. Another source told me that ‘Dooley shrugs several things off including the way Rogers back talks to everybody he possibly can.’

---

First of all, there is no consensus among Tennessee fans whether Basilio has any credibility as a solid source of information. He’s been described by some as a shameless hack who’ll do or say anything for ratings and pageviews. But he’s been described by others as someone who calls it like he sees it, whether Vol fans like what they hear and read or not. Take the information for what it’s worth.

Typically however, stories like this are never totally true or totally false. Something is clearly going wrong in Knoxville. Whether you believe it’s an all out dumpster fire or a handbags at five paces kerfuffle among divas, you have to suspect that there’s a conflict.

A very young, very inexperienced football roster gets a lot of blame for Tennessee’s disappointing 5-7 season. Matters seem to have come to a boil following the disastrous and embarrassing 10-7 loss to Kentucky. Tennessee hadn’t lost to Kentucky since 1984. That loss’ impact has apparently magnified divisions inside the program at the same time that it has eroded public support for Dooley.

There’s more than just the word of a radio personality serving as evidence of discord. During his post-game interview with the media after Saturday’s loss, senior tailback Tauren Poole had this to say:

---

“… no one wanted to be out there. We're all trying to encourage people because people were out of it. When it's like that, you're not going to be able to execute, I don't care where you're at.

“It's an embarrassment. It's really embarrassing to say the least. It sucks for this football team. We can't change anything."

“I told them last week, when this is your last, you want it. You want it all. You want to go for it all. You want to play for it all, you want to play every down like it's your last. When you've got another year, you're not going to play like that. It's obvious that that's what happened today. I'm not blaming anybody. I would never do that to this football team. It looked like no one wanted to be out there, no one wanted to play football."

---

Elsewhere in that interview, the questioner notes that senior linebacker Austin Johnson had  said that he felt some players were playing for their own stats Saturday rather than the team, and Poole agreed with that assessment. When you have outgoing seniors publicly stating that they felt underclassmen aren’t doing enough to help the team, you have a serious leadership problem on your squad.

Adding fuel to the fire: VolQuest.com reported that veteran WR coach Charlie Baggett was leaving the staff, in what reports termed “retirement.” Baggett was one of Dooley’s star hires and no one doubted his coaching credentials. Baggett’s separation from the Vol staff—at age 57—doesn’t sound like a dismissal.

Most college football fans in the southeast genuinely like Derek Dooley. But the same could be said of Mike Shula during his tenure at Alabama from 2003 – 2006. During Shula’s tenure, there were numerous reports of team and staff dissension. Some were substantiated, others were not, but there were clear signals that the head coach was losing control of the program.

Most coaches in the SEC fraternity genuinely like and respect Dooley, but again… the same could be said of Shula. Likeability and good character are important in a good football coach, but so is the ability to seize control of the program, clear the barrel of the bad apples, and show everyone that he is the head MFIC.

Mike Shula wasn’t good at that, and if the troubling reports from Knoxville are reasonably accurate, maybe Derek Dooley isn’t, either.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook.

Sources: Both Coach Houston Nutt and Athletic Director Pete Boone are OUT at Ole Miss

This is a developing story. Red Cup Rebellion—an Ole Miss blog at SBNation—reported Sunday that Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt has been fired and may be asked to step aside as early as Monday.

Following Saturday’s second half 30-13 collapse against Kentucky, Ole Miss is winless in the SEC and is guaranteed its second straight losing season.

From RCR:

---

The coaches and athletics administration will meet today to discuss whether or not Houston Nutt will coach the remainder of the season and who his interim replacement would be if he is not to stay. The situation that I am hearing is likely to happen is that Nutt is ousted and Gunter Brewer is to serve as his interim but, given that this is Ole Miss, I wouldn't be stunned to see that not take place in favor of Nutt finishing this season.

This brings us to the much more exciting question of who exactly will coach Ole Miss next season. Rebel boosters have been in touch with a handful of intriguing prospective head coaches over the past several weeks, including Alabama's Kirby Smart, Oklahoma's Brent Venables, Auburn's Gus Malzhan, and Houston's Kevin Sumlin. I haven't a clue as to which direction we are looking to go with this next hire, but if that's the short list they're choosing from then I can't be too worried.

---

Nutt started the season atop the list of SEC Coaches on the Hotseat and the 2-7 record of the 2011 season has only amped up the temperature. As RCR points out, this move—if accurate—should come as no shock to anyone.

Obviously, Ole Miss’ problems go way beyond the Coach. Athletics Director Pete Boone also finds himself under withering criticism over micro-managing the programs he oversees and downright rude treatment of seven-figure donors.

UPDATE: Confirmed. Though the site is experiencing heavy traffic and may not load until later today, the report is that Nutt will coach the remaining games left in the 2011 season and depart.

UPDATE II: SBNation.com is now reporting that Boone will step down from his AD post. The school has scheduled a 2:00 PM CST news conference in Oxford, MS.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook.

Houston Nutt has sealed his fate (Video)

Watch as Ole Miss Head Coach Houston Nutt goes off on RebelGrove.com’s Neal McCready and attempts to explain away the loss to Arkansas last Saturday.

---

Video courtesy of Rebel Grove.

---

Then read McCready’s column, wherein the former Mobile Press-Register beat writer and columnist takes Nutt to task for singling him out.

Nutt started the season on the hottest seat in the conference, rivaled only by Georgia’s Mark Richt in the imminence of the meltdown. Granted, Ole Miss’ problems go way beyond the head football coach, but Nutt is the face of the program.

This was the Rebels’ best game of the year. They led Arkansas 17-0 and were playing keep-away from the Razorbacks. If they’re able to play like that against Auburn, Kentucky and Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl, they might have a chance to stop the 12-game conference losing streak and stanch the flow of blood.

But when you are quoted as saying that you don’t believe your team has a chance of winning a conference game this season (*) and then have a highly public handbags-at-five-paces hissy fit with the Rivals.com columnist who is supposed to be one of your biggest cheerleaders, your fate as a head coach in this league has been sealed.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook.

* Did he really say that? The SDS site is the only source for that quote. Drop me a comment or a note if you can confirm or know otherwise.

Ole Miss is a kitchen grease fire and there’s no extinguisher

After a horrid 4-8 season last year, the Rebels under Houston Nutt are 1-3 overall and 0-2 in the SEC this season. Ole Miss hasn’t won an SEC game since this week last year and if it wasn’t for the absolute grease fire that this program has become, Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen might be completely winless against SEC West teams. On Saturday, they travel to Fresno State where they hope to pull off an upset against a WAC team.

Following a lopsided 30-7 loss against perennial conference doormat Vanderbilt, Ole Miss fans organized an anonymous group called Forward Rebels and began taking out pricey full page ads in regional newspapers, calling for whole cloth changes to the administration in Oxford. The Vandy loss (and probably the appearance of the ads) prompted Ole Miss Athletic Director Pete Boone to issue an 11:35 PM “hold the rope” email on the Sunday after the game, and then Boone commandeered Nutt’s Monday morning press conference.

Last Saturday’s drubbing by Georgia in the “Hot Seat Bowl” only further infuriated the Rebel Faithful, resulting in reports of threats made against Chancellor Dan Jones and an open letter to the fans, excerpted below. 

---

Many are aware of anonymous, malicious and public attacks on athletics director Pete Boone. The Ole Miss family may not be aware, however, that as a part of this orchestrated campaign, I have received threats, promising that if I do not remove Pete Boone, "It is going to get real ugly," and threatening to expand the attacks to other athletics employees.

Friends, supporters and the media have asked how I will react to this anonymous and vicious pressure. The short answer is that I will not react.

---

Ok. We’re not going to respond to anonymous and vicious pressure, but here’s a letter in response to anonymous and vicious pressure. But can’t we just get along?

Things haven’t been this bad in The Grove since the last coaching staff was run out of town.

I am tempted to buy a set of tickets for the October 15 game with Alabama, but I don’t think there will be enough Grove eye candy to make the trip worthwhile this time.

There’s probably not a winnable game left on Ole Miss’ schedule, unless either Auburn or Kentucky have epic seasonal meltdowns and somehow find a way to lose to a program that should finish the season 1-11.

Ole Miss is a fine old institution with an immense cultural and academic tradition. It’s had moments of gridiron glory too. But with other schools toying with the idea of joining the SEC, wouldn’t it be great if Ole Miss kept Houston Nutt and Pete Boone? After all, a Missouri or a West Virginia would like to look down a proposed 2013 or 2014 schedule and count at least a couple of guaranteed wins, right?

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook.

SEC Roundup: Week 2 and where is Auburn’s defense?

Alabama 27, Penn State 11. Methodical. Businesslike. Precise. No one should have any problems coming up with adjectives to describe the dismantling of the Penn State Nittany Lions by the Alabama Crimson Tide. Bama appears to have settled on AJ McCarron as the lead dog in the QB race, as the Mobile native threw 19 of 31 for 163 yards, one TD and no picks. Trent Richardson smashed the PSU defense for 111 yards on 26 carries and Alabama had this one on cruise control by midway in the third quarter. This was supposed to be a tune-up test for Bama and it played out exactly so. The offensive line seems to have gelled into a cohesive unit and the defense is just plain nasty. Next up is a visit from North Texas, a Sun Belt Conference team that dropped a 43-28 contest against Houston.

Arkansas 52, New Mexico 3. How did New Mexico prevent the shutout? Arguably the worst team in FBS, the Lobos stood absolutely no chance of drawing any significant bloodshed from the Razorbacks, whose Tyler Wilson polished his technique and went 18 of 26 passing for 259 yards, one TD pass and one TD run. Petrino’s offensive machine rolled up 632 yards and scored 50+ points for the second week in a row. While Missouri State plus New Mexico equals about one half of an SEC East team, Arkansas’ offense is going to be a difficult challenge for defenses throughout the league. Next up is Troy, 43-19 losers to Clemson.

Auburn 41, Mississippi State 34. The SEC’s Cardiac Kids were up to their old tricks yesterday, pulling out an improbable win against Mississippi State on the game’s last play. Bulldog QB Chris Relf got upended trying to punch in the tying TD with no timeouts and :08 showing on the clock. But Auburn’s defensive play during the game provided that opportunity. The 2009 and 2010 Tigers set school records for most points allowed, and they are on pace to break it again in 2011. Teams are gashing the Chizik/Roof defense and sustaining long scoring drives. Sooner or later, one has to wonder when the Tigers run into a defense capable of preventing Auburn from simply outscoring the opponent. Next up for the Cardiac Kids is a trip to Clemson, a team that Auburn needed overtime to beat in 2010. Mississippi State hosts LSU in Starkville on Thursday night.

Florida 39, UAB 0. UAB’s football program is a mess and yesterday’s game showed it in stark, high-contrast colors. The team was without three key starters—all out due to sports hernias. That’s an injury typically caused by a  poor strength & conditioning regimen. The Gators ran past, through and over the Blazers and dispatched them easily. UAB just needs to put its money in basketball and forget about that new stadium. Florida’s next opponent is Derek Dooley’s Tennessee Volunteers, a decent and improving SEC East foe that defeated Cincinnati 45-23. Should be a fun one to watch.

Georgia 42, South Carolina 45. Did the temperature on UGA Coach Mark Richt’s seat kick it up a notch? The conventional wisdom going into Saturday’s slugfest was that Richt wouldn’t survive to see the sidelines in 2012 if he started 0-2. There were plenty of mistakes on the field for both Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks and Richt’s Bulldogs, but this game was going to be won by whoever had the ball last. Richt obviously didn’t do anything to cool the hotseat, but it’s hard to fault the coach for that effort yesterday. His team left it on the field and that’s the best a coach can ask for. This game puts South Carolina in a key advantage in the SEC East race and sets UGA back several steps. While a loss to Spurrier might not end his career, not making it to Atlanta for a shot at the title might. Georgia plays Coastal Carolina at home next Saturday while South Carolina gets Navy. Oh, by the way…  Navy is undefeated, scoring 40 points each in wins against Delaware and Western Kentucky.

LSU 49, Northwestern State, 3. Northwestern what State? Demons coach Bradley Dale was an assistant for four years under Les Miles and actually pulled within four points when a Field Goal clanged in to make the score 7-3. It was all Bayou Bengals from there and it was 28-3 at halftime. Miles cleared the bench and I think even the waterboy got a key block on a fourth quarter first down play. LSU travels to Mississippi State for a key SEC West matchup on Thursday night.

Ole Miss 42, Southern Illinois 24. Don’t let this score fool you into thinking that Houston Nutt has Ole Miss’ problems solved. The visiting Salukis turned the ball over four times but made a gallant run at the Rebel Bears early in the third quarter, scoring on two long TD drives and closing to 35-24. The only reasons this didn’t turn into an 0-2 start were a porous Southern Illinois defense and the turnovers. Ole Miss is still a dumpster fire under the right reverend, but anyone can win with such gifts given at home. Ole Miss travels to Vanderbilt next Saturday and the SEC opener could determine who the conference doormat will be in 2011.

Tennessee 45, Cincinnati 23. Tennessee is an improving football program in Coach Derek Dooley’s second season. The Bearcats were no slouch of a football team, returning the Big East’s best passer, best tailback and leading all-purpose yards athlete. They expected to score early and often and Tennessee all but shut them down after starting a footrace with the Bearcats. The two teams traded touchdown drives twice and the game was tied 14-14 until took the lead for good in the second quarter. Cincy could manage only another nine points and the Vol defense made key adjustments. That’s what well coached teams do and Dooley is starting to show why his doubters may have sold him short. Tennessee travels to the Swamp to take on Florida next Saturday.

Vanderbilt 24, UConn 21. Vanderbilt has a winning streak. Vanderbilt is 2-0. Vanderbilt channeled its inner Auburn and came back from 21-14 down to beat the Connecticut Huskies 24-21 and Coach James Franklin has those crazy Commodore fans thinking they might challenge for the SEC East. Vandy’s first teamers have always been able to play competitively with anyone in the league. Depth has always been their achilles heel and it’s always affected their confidence. But Franklin seems to have erased the confidence gap and has his team playing to win. Vandy hasn’t won two straight football games since 2008, but with a visit from Ole Miss next week, they have a real shot at going 3-0 and with other winnable games on the schedule, the ‘dores might start thinking of holiday travel plans.

I know, right?

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook.

Costly Hot Seats: Richt and Nutt would be owed millions

Neither of the current SEC Hot Seat occupants did anything to cool the talk their exits from the SEC coaching fraternity. Ole Miss’ Houston Nutt laid an egg at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, blowing a 13 point lead in a five minute span of the fourth quarter. This was the program’s second consecutive season opening loss. Georgia’s Mark Richt’s team looked uninspired and unmotivated in a 35-21 drubbing by perennial Cinderella Boise State, a team that had never beaten an SEC opponent.

The two schools’ fans took to message boards, Twitter, Facebook and talk radio to vent their frustrations and calls for heads to roll easily drowned out those calling for patience. But should the two administrations decide that changes are necessary, expect the price to be steep.

Last fall, the Atlanta-Journal Constitution estimated Richt’s buyout to be on the order of about $5 million. Add in the cost of any replacement’s first year’s salary—let’s say $3.0 million assuming they get an already established head coach—and UGA faithful had better hope that the braintrust is making the right decision. The round figure of $8.0 million doesn’t take into account any contractual obligations to assistant coaches, so $8.0 million might even be quite conservative.

Last May, the Jackson Clarion-Ledger estimated Nutt’s buyout to be even sweeter. Nutt would get $6.0 million if there are three or more years remaining on his contract. Again, throw in another $3.0 million to attract a top-drawer replacement and $9.0 million is the conservative estimate.

If the season is dreadful enough for Ole Miss and Georgia, there’s little doubt that two new coaches enter the brotherhood next year. Losing football programs in the SEC are budget busters. Ticket sales drop off. Concessions dry up. Donations dwindle. Even enrollment suffers. So while a conservative estimate of $17.0 million is a staggering sum to replace the two SEC veterans, when faced with fiscal losses that drag out for two or more years the schools may decide that they have no choice but to pull out the checkbook.

Exit Question: What if Nutt and Richt go miracle maker and meet in Atlanta for the SEC Title? Not bloody likely, but coming close to that outcome might be the thing that saves them and ensures that the two programs are stuck in mediocrity for years to come.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook.

Game Week: Updated SEC Hot Seat Rankings

With the craziest offseason in memory now only a few days away from a merciful end, it’s time to update the SEC Coaches’ Hot Seat Rankings.  As was the case back in May, some coaches are predictably safe, others are quite warm, and at least one with the prospect of a core breach and complete meltdown. A lot has happened since these were first published. LSU and Tennessee have both received weaksauce penalties for relatively minor recruiting violations. LSU also saw a group of players—including starting QB Jordan Jefferson—get involved with an off-campus incident that led to arrests and suspensions. Preseason incidents also affected Ole Miss, Florida and Auburn, but none of these are going to change the ratings much.

Our Scale: 1—Ice Cold to 10—Nuclear.

This a completely subjective analysis, and it is not meant to illustrate how much danger one coach is in vis-a-vis one of the others. Mark Richt’s status at Georgia has no impact on either Muschamp or Dooley. Houston Nutt’s has no impact on Dan Mullen, and vice versa. It’s all about past performance, perceived ability to be competitive in the country’s toughest league and whether fans, alumni and administrations think the prospect for future competitiveness warrants action.

So, in alphabetical order: 

Alabama; Nick Saban. One of the three safest coaches in the conference. Saban has put Alabama back at the top of everyone’s national championship short lists and with good reason. Back-to-back-to-back recruiting classes have the Crimson Tide absolutely loaded from sideline to sideline, on both sides of the ball, two and sometimes three steps deep. He has won 35 games in three years, with two SEC West Titles, two undefeated regular seasons, an SEC Championship and the program’s league-leading 13th National Championship. His defensive philosophy is akin to unleashing 11 ferocious lions upon the hapless martyrs of opposing offenses and his pro-style offense is geared towards attracting and developing NFL-caliber players. Saban is going nowhere anytime soon. He’s a 1. 

Arkansas; Bobby Petrino.  The Razorbacks showed flashes of offensive brilliance in 2010 but lacked the killer instinct shown by West rivals. Part of that was youth and lack of depth. Petrino arrived to a team that Houston Nutt didn’t leave well stocked with top-drawer talent. By getting his own guys in place and coaching them up, Petrino is improving Arkansas’ threat to break through the SEC West logjam. As long as they continue to recruit well and improve, there will be more BCS Bowl appearances and a legitimate shot at some trophy case hardware. Knile Davis’ horrific season ending ankle injury hurts the hogs ground game, but is that likely to be a season changer? Probably not. He’s a 2, but the SEC West is brutal and making steady improvement is a hard row to hoe. 

Auburn; Gene Chizik. Another 2, because Auburn fans may grow restless down the stretch of a scary schedule. Graduation, defections to the NFL and early dismissals of six players from the 2010 team have decapitated the team’s senior leadership structure and true freshmen have real shots at starting roles. That never bodes well in this league.  To his credit, Chizik has surrounded himself with a very good staff and has recruited top-drawer talent. But that talent is awfully young. I know it sounds crazy to rank the coach of the defending champions anything other that an Ice Cold 1, but the 2011 schedule really is brutal and to think there won’t be grumbling is to fail to understand the football culture in this state. The flies in the ointment for Chizik are the myriad of NCAA investigations into the program. If those result in allegations of major rules violations, things warm up, and warm up quickly. 

Florida; Will Muschamp. A scion of the Saban Line. He’s in his first year. He comes with a stellar resume. 1, easy. Former coach Urban Meyer left the team stocked with top-caliber talent. Muschamp is already showing great leadership in meting out swift, sure discipline, the only thing that Meyer’s tenure seemed to fall short on. Muschamp should have the Gators right back in the thick of the SEC East race, and his team will make it tough for anyone other than the Gators to return to Atlanta in December in his very first year. Which may not bode well for…

Georgia; Mark Richt. One of the most well regarded coaches in the league by sportswriters and his peers. But Georgia seems to be slipping out of the top tier of the league. In five years, Georgia is 23-16 in the SEC and 13-12 against the SEC East. 1-4 against Florida. Those are Jim Donnan-type numbers. Richt’s saving grace is that he’s the only coach in UGA history to have four straight 10-win seasons. He’s won two SEC Titles and been BCS bowling. One has to wonder that if the Bulldogs aren’t in Atlanta this December, UGA decides to make a change. We’re moving this up to an 8. Georgia has a tough season-opening challenge in Boise State’s visit to the Dome in Atlanta, followed by a tough matchup against 2010 SEC East Champ, South Carolina. Lose both of those and a core breach is imminent. 

Kentucky; Joker Phillips. Another one of the league’s most highly regarded football coaches, Phillips is only in his second year as Head Coach of his alma mater. His commitment to academics, team discipline and athletics plays well, and his inaugural 2010 team made a bowl game. As long as the Wildcats don’t embarrass Kentucky fans and keep them busy in the run-up to basketball season, Phillips is probably in for a long tenure in Lexington. If he manages to get the ‘cats to the level of contending for the SEC East title, he’ll get a statue. 2, here. 

LSU; Les Miles. Tiger fans are notoriously impatient. There are three reasons why they shouldn’t grumble at the Mad Hatter. He wins football games. His kids usually stay out of trouble and he absolutely owns the fertile recruiting grounds of Louisiana. What more could you ask for in a good football coach? National Title? Check. SEC Title? Check. Crazy endings to big games? Check. He’s always going to deliver good entertainment and good football.  The incident regarding Jordan Jefferson’s brawl and felony arrest are an embarrassment, but not a job threatening one. Having highly-regarding Steve Kragthorpe step down due to a bout with Parkinson’s disease is another reason for LSU fans to give Miles a break in 2011. LSU could lose four games this year (Oregon, Alabama, Arkansas and Florida or West Virginia) and Miles will still be back in 2012. He’s a 3.

Mississippi State; Dan Mullen. The third of the three safest coaches in the league, rated at 1. Mullen is steadily building a good program in the middle of nowhere, Mississippi. The man appears to be an offensive genius and may well have been the reason for Urban Meyer’s uncanny run of victories that led to two crystal trophies.

Mississippi State seems to have found their man. The only question is, if he keeps winning, can they afford to keep him? 

Ole Miss; Houston Nutt. The hottest seat in the league at 9 and rising. Ole Miss is a dumpster fire of a football program. You follow Ed “Yaw Yaw” Orgeron with the biggest snake oil salesman in the conference? The school is being sued by the family of a kid who died during conditioning drills. Players have been arrested and kicked off the team. Offseason injuries and commentary indicate an overall lack of discipline and commitment to offseason workouts. Despite winning the oversigning National Championship two years ago by accepting National Letters of Intent from like, 448 players or something, the 2011 squad will have only 73 players on scholarship. Ole Miss will be lucky to win one game in the SEC. The only thing that could possibly save Nutt’s job would be their first ever trip to Atlanta, and that just ain’t happening. 

South Carolina; Steve Spurrier. An easy 1 here, but Spurrier is the type of coach that, if he doesn’t think he’s getting it done, would step aside before USC made a move. Not to worry, though. South Carolina’s first ever visit to Atlanta under Spurrier and upset of defending national champion Alabama has Gamecock fans more than willing to give him all the time he wants to figure out when he should retire. A very good 2011 recruiting class is gravy, too.  Spurrier has given the program many firsts—first ever visit to Atlanta, first ever win over a #1 ranked team, back-to-back wins over Clemson. There are more goals to come and Spurrier has all the time he wants to go after them.

Tennessee; Derek Dooley. Another scion of the Saban Line, with all of the character and motivational skills needed to be a successful head football coach, Dooley may still not quite be ready for big time football in the SEC. He’s recruited well. He seems to have control over a program that Lane Kiffin was letting run wild. But his resume was thin before he arrived at Rocky Top. He rates a 4. He’s almost certainly safe to return in 2012, barring a complete meltdown of a 2011 season. I think there’s enough room in the schedule to prevent that from happening. Win any two of the first three SEC matchups and the seat goes ice cold. 

Vanderbilt; James Franklin. Another 1. He’s yet to coach a down of SEC football, and Vandy’s long tradition of being the only SEC school with ACC quality football seems a perfect fit for Maryland’s former offensive coordinator. This was probably a better marriage for the Commodores than it will be for Franklin. He might field competitive teams, but the only thing they’ll be competing for is staying ahead of Ole Miss, at least for the 2011 season. If the guy can recruit at the national level and compete with Stanford and Notre Dame for prospects, maybe he’s the guy that gets the Commodores up to SEC caliber play on the field.

There you have it—a league of relative extremes with few in the middle. Saban, Muschamp, Mullen and Spurrier are the safest. They are followed closely by Franklin, Miles, Chizik, Petrino and Phillips. All of these guys are lead pipe locks to return for the 2012 season. The hottest seat in the league is that of Nutt, with Richt also possibly facing some music at the end of 2011.

Dooley is the league’s only real question mark, but he’s better than even odds to come back.

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook.