Showing posts with label Bradley Byrne. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bradley Byrne. Show all posts

Sunday, December 22, 2019

Doug Jones refuses to commit to acquit; trails most GOP opponents


No Alabama voter in their right mind thinks that a vote to acquit President Trump will let Doug Jones sneak in and be reelected as the junior U.S. Senator from Alabama. No... his vote against Trump's Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh in 2018 has almost certainly sealed that fate. But here he is trying to play the uncommitted juror in an appearance on ABC News this morning. Axios won't let me embed the video but you can click through if you want, and you tell me if that's the face of an honest man.

So... given that the man is fundamentally dishonest and slipperier that a Goat Hill piglet, how can his 2020 electoral fate be almost certainly sealed? Well, we have some recent polling of the 2020 Alabama Senate seat race and Jones trails almost all of his GOP opponents.

Tommy Tuberville beats him 47/40. Sessions wins 46/41, my guy Bradley Byrne beats him 44/40.  Who does he almost certainly not beat?
Jones did beat former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore in a head-to-head match-up, leading him 47% to 33%, with 20% undecided. He also led Rep. Arnold Mooney, R-Indian Springs, 40% to 34%, with 25% undecided. The incumbent senator also consistently led his opponent among voters under the age of 35; African-American voters, and non-evangelical voters.
There really are only two people who could lose to Doug Jones in November: Me, and Roy Moore. Though Mooney trails Moore in the Advertiser poll, that's simply a function of name recognition. Mooney is a solid conservative with very little (known) baggage.

I'm not running--I missed the primary ballot deadline because my wife grabbed my ankle and wouldn't let me make it to the courthouse.

That leaves Creepy Uncle Roy Moore.

The sexual misconduct allegations against Brett Kavanaugh failed to derail his SCOTUS nomination because they were provably false. The sexual misconduct allegations against Creepy Uncle Roy were credibly true. If things had ever come to a trial, the well of other victims with other lurid and disgusting stories would have never run dry. Let's just say that the women who came forward were the brave ones.

A vote for Creepy Uncle Roy in the March primary is the same as a vote for Doug Jones in the general election. Please don't.

Alabama voters have already made it clear that they'd rather have a dishonest Democrat than a creepy dude who was twice removed from office by members of his profession elected from his own party. If Republican lawyers and judges can't stand the man, Republican voters shouldn't either.

Friday, November 8, 2019

Jeff Sessions has qualified for the U.S. Senate GOP primary

He's in. And he's hit the track running hard for his old spot as the Junior Senator from Alabama. He made his public announcement in very friendly territory, chatting it up with Fox's Tucker Carlson.


He's also gotten some very big guns from the upper chamber behind him, led by the Senior Senator from Alabama, Richard Shelby:
Fox News has learned that Alabama’s senior senator, Richard Shelby, is circulating an “open letter to conservatives” signed by at least 11 Republican senators who are endorsing Sessions’ candidacy. Sessions served in the Senate from 1997 to 2017 until he joined the Trump administration as attorney general.

“Each of us has served in the United States Senate with Jeff Sessions,” the letter, obtained by Fox News, states. “We have seen him work diligently in the public eye and behind closed doors, when things were both good and bad, under stress and in success.”

The letter is signed by Shelby, Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe, Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts, Wyoming Sen. Mike Enzi, Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo, Georgia Sen. Johnny Isakson, Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt, Arkansas Sen. John Boozman, Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson and Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer.
Polling with an official Sessions campaign hasn't been done yet. But if the official polling tracks anywhere near the polling on a hypothetical race with Sessions in the mix, he's the new leader in the clubhouse:
In late June, Brent Buchanan’s firm Cygnal surveyed 612 likely Republican voters with a margin of error at +/-3.96%. His ballot test numbers – WITHOUT Sessions in the race – showed:

Tommy Tuberville 29%
Bradley Byrne 21%
Roy Moore 13%
John Merrill 12%
The ballot test – WITH Sessions in the race – showed:

Jeff Sessions 29%
Tommy Tuberville 21%
Bradley Byrne 13%
Roy Moore 9%
John Merrill 8%
Sessions is expected to draw votes from "establishment" lane dwellers, Byrne and Merrill, but also from the "outsider lane" candidates Tubs and creepy Roy Moore. If these numbers hold and Byrne or Merrill can't find a way to get past Tubs, Sessions will face Tubs in the ultimate establishment vs outsider battle.

One way Sessions can get Tubs to suffer a little is by showing up tomorrow with President Trump at the Alabama-LSU game. Tubs can't do that; Sessions can because he's a Capstone Alumnus.

The question is, would Trump do this? Washington Examiner indicates that he wouldn't. Remember folks, Trump is a showman. What better show could there be than having the President and Prodigal Senator reunited before 100,000+ potential Alabama voters and millions more on national TV?

How could Trump not have his heart of hearts warmed by this ad, and how does he resist?

Thursday, November 8, 2018

Jeff Sessions out as Attorney General, mulling a return to his Senate Seat? Well…

imageHe’s leaning against returning to the Senate even though he’d be a strong candidate for his old seat, now held by Democrat Doug Jones.

Everyone saw Sessions’ exit from the Department of Justice as a foregone conclusion. His fumbling of questions regarding his contact with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak led to him recusing himself from oversight of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe of Russian influence during the 2016 campaign. This immediately angered President Donald Trump and has led to near constant discord between Trump and the first sitting Senator to endorse his Presidential campaign.

Sessions is 71 and he’s spent the better part of four decades in federal service. People he’s spoken to tell IBCR that a decision hasn’t been made whether to start a moderately “uphill comeback” or just enjoy retirement. He is personally irritated by the the rancor with the White House but embraced his role in the Senate. He particularly relished his time and work on the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Meanwhile, current Senator Doug Jones is widely seen as the weakest of the Democrat incumbents seeking reelection in 2020, and this has attracted a great deal of interest from a very deep candidate field. The possibles include Alabama political heavyweights like former Alabama Attorney Luther Strange and Representatives Bradley Byrne and Martha Roby. Sessions would almost certainly face formidable primary opposition. Also, Donald Trump is still very popular in the state and his criticism of Sessions’ handling of the Russia has taken its toll.

The political terrain in Alabama is simple and flat: Anyone not named Roy Moore will destroy Doug Jones in the 2020 General Election.  The primary campaign  is where this election will be decided.  Sessions must decide if he wants to get up close and personal with candidates that he knows and personally likes, and who began preparing to unseat Jones last January.

He hasn’t yet.

Perhaps the most telling indication of Sessions’ current thinking is this statement from his Senate colleague, Richard Shelby:

“Thank you to my good friend, Jeff Sessions, for over 40 years of noble service to Alabama and our country. Jeff was a respected colleague of mine in the Senate for two decades and represented our nation with honor as the U.S. Attorney General. I wish him all the best in his future endeavors.”

Stay tuned, though.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Paper accuses Robert Bentley of collusion with AEA. But where's the smoking gun?

[NOTE: In the spirit of full disclosure, I first supported Tim James in the GOP primary.  I then voted for Bradley Byrne in the runoff (yes, I picked the loser twice in one primary election).]

image In a story that ran in Sunday’s Mobile Press-Register, Political Editor George Talbot tries to lay out a plot between Republican gubernatorial Robert Bentley and the Alabama Education Association during a tense run-off for the GOP nomination.  Talbot suggests that the evidence contradicts Bentley’s claims of  “innocent bystander” status in an ongoing row between Byrne and AEA.

Talbot says Bentley may also be in violation of the Alabama election law requirement that candidates disclose in-kind contributions in addition to direct cash.

AEA is one of the most powerful political organizations in the state, with a massive get-out-the-vote machine and very deep pockets. Bradley Byrne, who finished first in the primary but was forced into a runoff with Bentley, has been a staunch political enemy of the AEA and its retiring Executive Director, Paul Hubbert.  As the Chancellor of Alabama’s Community College System from 2007 through his 2009 gubernatorial campaign announcement, Byrne was instrumental in Republican attempts to rid the public education system of “double-dippers” and corruption in state Government.  “Double dipping” is the practice of serving in the Alabama state legislature while also holding a teaching or administrative position in state government (i.e., community colleges).

Excerpts from the story (emphasis added):


Bentley, throughout the runoff battle, stayed true to his public pledge not to run negative ads. But privately, a daring strategy was taking shape, according to internal e-mails and interviews with campaign officials.

As election day neared and Byrne’s momentum increased, documents show that the Bentley campaign took a calculated risk — reaching out to Byrne’s archenemy, the Alabama Education Association.

To be effective in a GOP runoff, the collaboration between Bentley and the AEA would have to be secret.

Working through back channels with Bentley’s campaign, the AEA pummeled Byrne with a barrage of attack ads and automated phone calls, according to e-mails and telephone records obtained by the Press-Register.

On the morning of Thursday, July 8, the Bentley campaign was in overdrive.

At 9:45 a.m., Bentley’s campaign manager, Bob Wickers, flashed an e-mail to Stan Pate, a Tuscaloosa businessman and close adviser to Bentley.

“I need you. Can we speak this morning?” Wickers asked.

Pate, according to e-mail records, served as a middle man between the campaign and AEA, a role he acknowledged in an interview last week. He said that Wickers wanted to nail down arrangements for Bentley to record an automated message — known as a “robocall” — that AEA would distribute to voters via its phone network.

Minutes after receiving Wickers’ e-mail and speaking with him, Pate took a call from David Stout, a public relations manager for AEA, he said in the interview last week.

Stout e-mailed Pate with instructions for setting up an account with AEA’s calling service and attached a proposed script for Bentley to read.

Pate said that he forwarded the e-mail to Wickers and business partner Bryan Sanders, who arranged for Bentley to record the call.

On Friday, July 9, Sanders e-mailed Pate to thank him for his help.

“Doc recorded two automated calls today for our friends to drop to their statewide list,” Sanders wrote.

“He will record a third call within the next 24 hours. The call center guys have been notified and the first call will drop today. The second call will drop Saturday. Mike Huckabee has recorded a call to drop Sunday to a different statewide list through a different call center. And the final call will be recorded within the next 24 hours to drop Monday.”

AEA blasted Bentley’s 30-second messages out to more than 500,000 phone accounts daily over the next three days, according to results provided to the campaign by Stout.


Talbot’s piece attempts to tie Bentley’s campaign to a series of blistering AEA ads targeting Bradley Byrne.  Alabama television and radio markets were inundated with negative ads, attacking Byrne for ties to Bill Clinton (Byrne is a recovering Democrat), British Petroleum (the runoff was during the worst of the oil spill), and lobbyists.  The ads were effective in driving down Byrnes’ public approval and probably led to the large margin of victory for Bentley. Bentley won the nomination convincingly 56-44.

But nothing in Talbot’s story ties Bentley to the ad campaign.  The only evidence Talbot shares in the story are a chain of emails between Bentley’s campaign staff and the operators of the largest robocalling organization in the state.  The result of those emails is apparently a set of three calling operations carried out in the week before the runoff vote. If you’re spending money on GOTV efforts in this state, who do you turn to?

Was it shrewd for Bentley’s campaign to turn to a rival political organization’s apparatus?  Perhaps.  But if the Bentley campaign reimbursed AEA for the robocalling effort, or if Bentley’s campaign records show the in-kind services were reported, then there is no violation of campaign law here. Political shrewdness may gall some voters, and the secrecy of the deals that made the robocalls happen may hurt Bentley’s image of the gentleman grandfather turned political reformer. But there’s no law against shrewdness, and in Alabama politics, backchannel deals are as much a part of the game as Coca Cola and Golden Flake.

It’s also worth noting that the AEA brazenly encouraged registered Democrats to cross over and vote for Bentley.  They wanted no part of Byrne in the Governor’s Mansion, and this was a secret to no one.

Where’s your smoking gun, Mr. Talbot?  Where’s the evidence that Bentley’s campaign colluded with the AEA to coordinate a negative ad campaign against Byrne?  And remember, I’m asking this as a former Byrne supporter.

Late last week, the Democrat candidate for Governor, Ron Sparks, lamely accused Robert Bentley of accepting campaign cash from “gambling interests.” And some time last week, The Mobile Press-Register “obtained” emails exchanged between the AEA—a Democrat-aligned political organization—and Bentley campaign operatives.  I seriously doubt that the Bentley campaign was the source of the leaked emails, don’t you?

To my cynical eye, this has all the makings of a coordinated, last ditch effort to knock Dr. Bentley down a few notches with baseless smears. It should also be a very important lesson for the Bentley campaign—you cannot lie with a pit of vipers and expect to be un-bitten.

If this is the best October Surprise you can deliver Mr. Hubbert, then you’re well past the prime of your game, and retirement is coming none too soon.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Alabama Politics and Alabama Football!

This is that deliciously rare opportunity I get to write a blog post covering my two favorite subjects--politics and Alabama football.  In his weekly sports column for the Mobile Press-Register, writer and syndicated talk-show host Paul Finebaum explains a firestorm of controversy over alleged comments by Republican gubernatorial hopeful, Tim James:

Last Friday, a rumor started floating around that James had blasted Alabama coach Nick Saban at a campaign stop. There were variations on the rumor, one of which had James using a pejorative in front of Saban's name. The other simply said he would cut Saban's nearly $5 million a year salary. Two people told me they heard the comments but the candidate was clearly joking.

The mere mention of the possibility, whether James was joking or not, had tongues wagging and phones melting down on radio talk shows. But before the conversation ever left the earth's atmosphere, James turned a mild tempest in a teapot into a nuclear war -- at least on the most commonly traveled highways where politics and sports intersect.

Finebaum explains that James, like his father and former Governor, Fob James, both went to and played football for Auburn University, Bama's in-state rival (yes, Auburn is actually inside the state of Alabama).  He also notes that James' chief primary candidate, Bradley Byrne, obtained his Master's Degree from Alabama.

Notwithstanding the fact that James, as Governor, has virtually no power over who state university athletic programs hire as coaches, the fact that James is a self-proclaimed "Auburn man" is reason enough for Alabama fans to view his candidacy with suspicion.  You see, in this state--football is not a sport, it is a religion.  Each fall, the athletic equivalent of jihad is declared between two fanbases and emotions don't settle down until sometime in January.

Finebaum makes note of the fact that James committed two mistakes in handling this:  One, he repeated the rumor on Twitter in the process of denying it, thus giving it legs and a longer life in the news cycle and two, whoever posted the denial tweet blamed it on Byrne, a Bama man.  But what Finebaum didn't point out was the fact that public opinion surveys conducted each fall show that Alabama isn't just a red state, it's a "Crimson Red State."  Polling started in the late 1980's and is usually conducted in the week leading up to the annual showdown called the Iron Bowl.  While the Iron Bowl rivalry is a fairly close one on the field (Bama holds a 40-33-1 edge in the series), the rivalry for public support isn't close at all.  Alabama fans routinely outpoll Auburn fans by large margins, from 37-23 in the late 1980's to a nearly two-to-one edge, 64-33, in the late 2000's.

This means that, not only was James joke and denial an 11th hour mistake, it was a mistake that could cost James in the polls.  The primary field for the Alabama Governor's mansion is crowded and most likely headed for a runoff.  James' internal polling showed him with a slim lead last month and other public polling shows a very tight race.  Byrne, the Bama man, is the establishment choice in the race, while James is the maverick with stronger Tea Party support.

I'm going with James in the primary next Tuesday.  I believe the crack really was a joke and I really don't care if a junior staffer manning the Twitter account doesn't understand the sensitivity of how that thing can play out.  Byrne is a good candidate and should he win the primary, I'll throw my support to him.

But if James wins the primary and goes on to beat likely Democrat candidate Artur Davis, I and many other Bama fans will keep a close eye on that Barner.  

Extra Point: Current Alabama Governor Bob Riley -- Bama grad.