Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Still more Senate races showing predictable tightening

image And the Daily Caller writer Jon Ward seems somewhat mystified by the fact that polling data show some tightening in the  California, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin Senate races.

We however, aren’t mystified at all.

Democrats are saying that Obama’s last minute push, combined with union and liberal-leaning groups are making the difference.  We know better.


Democrats argue that the numbers in Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Wisconsin are evidence that the message push from President Obama in recent days and weeks, combined with the work by labor unions to rouse their members through mailing and phone calls, are having an effect.

Democrats also hope they can take a few races by localizing the races as much as possible.

But the national mood is clearly not in Democrats’ favor. There are nearly 100 House races in play, most of them held by Democrats. And a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll out Wednesday showed Republicans with a 50 percent to 43 percent edge among likely voters over Democrats.

This is nothing more than typical, late season tightening of races that were outside the margins of error for the respective polls.  This happens often—races that were seemingly all wrapped up just a week or so ago suddenly look like they’re getting close again.  They are, but if history is any indication then the next week’s cycle of polls are likely to show the original leaders reestablishing their positions and likely, winning their elections.

They won’t all fall that way.  Late campaign gaffes, “October Surprises” even weather-related turnout can affect the outcome.  But more times than not, these races will stick to the trends established decades ago.

One of these days, I’ll compile the data and analyses that these cockamamie theories of mine are based on.  But in the mean time, just sit back and relax, and watch the pundits go nuts trying to figure it out.