Gene Taylor, conservative Blue Dog from Mississippi, in trouble

As late as last week, Congressional Quarterly had the 4th Congressional District of Mississippi rated as Safe Democrat.

Today, it’s yellow—tossup.

Folks, Gene Taylor would never get elected as a Democrat in a state like California or Michigan.  He’s too conservative.  He’s the guy who said he voted for John McCain in 2008.  He also voted against Obamacare. He’s also one of the Democrats who said he’d support someone other than Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House.

But his challenger, Steven Palazzo, is flooding the south Mississippi airwaves with an impressive and positive ad, while Taylor has turned negative.

Palazzo is also running his ads on WBUV News Radio 104.9, a coastal Mississippi talk radio station with a strong conservative bent.  The people most interested in news and politics in the three most populous counties in the state listen to 104.9 (including me when I’m in the area for business).  I haven’t heard one of Taylor’s ads on that station, and neither has a business associate of mine who lives in Gulfport.

Taylor and Palazzo meet in their first and only debate of the campaign tonight at 6:00 pm CDT. You can listen live here.

At first, Taylor wouldn’t even respond to Palazzo’s requests for a debate.  That Taylor agreed, and that the debate is happening on the Friday night before the election, has to be a troubling omen for Democrats hoping to hold the seat.