Sunday, October 17, 2010

BCS Standings Prediction UPDATE: Oklahoma?

The first Bowl Championship Series standings will be released later tonight on ESPN.

Here’s my prediction for the Top 10, based on the Coaches’ and Harris Polls and an educated guess on the computer model runs.

1) Boise State Broncos
2) Oregon Ducks
3) TCU Horned Frogs
4) Oklahoma Sooners
5) Auburn Tigers
6) LSU Tigers
7) Michigan State Spartans
8) Alabama Crimson Tide
9) Ohio State Buckeyes
10) Nebraska Cornhuskers

Among the projected Top 10, I see three weak sisters:  TCU, LSU and Michigan State.  I don’t see either LSU or Michigan State winning out and TCU’s strength of schedule will continue to be a drag. 

Boise State, Oklahoma, Auburn, LSU and Alabama all control their own destiny, but Alabama’s loss to South Carolina puts them in elimination mode.  Lose one more, and you’re done.  Oklahoma and Auburn could both lose one and still make it to Tempe.  Boise is a one-and-done team.

We’ll see how I did when the BCS standings come out later tonight.

UPDATE: Boy, I didn’t see that coming.  The official BCS standings:

1) Oklahoma Sooners
2) Oregon Ducks
3) Boise State Broncos
4) Auburn Tigers
5) TCU Horney Toads
6) LSU Tigers
7) Michigan State Spartans
8) Alabama Crimson Tide
9) Utah Utes
10) Ohio State Buckeyes

At least I got #2, #7 and #8 right.

I can hear the whining from Idaho all the way here in Alabama.  The computers obviously don’t like their schedule.  They do like Auburn’s schedule though, and this sets up a HUGE game on the Plains, when LSU visits Auburn on Saturday.

I meant to mention earlier that I think Oklahoma has the easiest path of any #1 team in my recent memory.  Texas was their biggest challengem and  #11 Mizzou and #14 Okie State are the only ranked teams left on their schedule.

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