The bad news: Hurricane Earl has been upgraded—again—to a Category IV storm.
The good news: Earl has apparently started to make the long awaited turn towards the northwest, beginning the days-long recurvature process that will hopefully take the storm away from any major North American landmass.
The entire eye-wall of the storm is now clearly visible on the long range NEXRAD RADAR loop from San Juan, Puerto Rico. On a historical note, my very first Hurricane deployment was for Hurricane Hugo, which devastated San Juan in 1989.
Here’s the latest project path of Earl’s hurricane force (+75 mph) winds.
Oh, and there’s some more bad news: Fiona has formed in Earl’s wake, and both the CLPS and BAMD forecast models have that system entering the Gulf of Mexico.
Should either Earl or Fiona stray too far to the west in the next 24-48 hours (36-60 hours for Fiona), the area from the Outer Banks of North Carolina up to Atlantic, Nova Scotia could see Hurricane force winds by this time next week.
Earl striking the coast of the US is a longshot. Fiona, not so much.
As always, you can track any of these storms using the Tropical Update page, located here, which will let you see the same model forecast paths used by the National Hurricane Center.
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