Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Do Democrats have a November Death Wish?

Democrat leaders either have to be batshit crazy, or they have a bona fide death wish for their rank and file. Politico reports that President Obama is trying to coax Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, gauging his support for another shot at immigration amnesty. But here's the stuff that makes me wonder about the sanity of Reid, Pelosi and Obama:

Obama’s outreach to Brown is part of a quickly hatched, coordinated effort with congressional leaders to thrust the volatile immigration debate back to the front burner. At a joint House and Senate leadership meeting late Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid promised to House leaders that he would put an immigration bill on the floor this year—and he secured a commitment from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that the House will vote on immigration reform, according to a Democratic leadership source with knowledge of the meeting.

Barack Obama woos Scott Brown on immigration - Kasie Hunt - POLITICO.com
Even the rankest of the rank amateur political observer would agree that every bloody nickel of the Democrats' political capital was spent in the bruising political battle of Obamacare. If Democrats hope to get reelected in the November midterm elections, the smart money says "lay low, do the milquetoasty and uncontroversial business you usually do before campaigns begin in earnest, and hope the electorate has a short memory. "

Recall that in the lame duck term of George W. Bush's administration, a similar immigration amnesty effort (that one headed by Teddy Kennedy and John "Maverick" McCain) was met by a massive storm of public outrage. Public opinion--and the prudence of the politicians on both sides of the aisle who listened--killed that bill.

Does anyone think that the electorate is in any more receptive mood for that abomination now? Anyone, that is, except President Obama, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi? Even liberal-leaning election analysts are already pointing to November as a historic "wave" midterm. Another Glorious Revolution of 1994 was being thought and whispered about, but few outside of the right wing thought the GOP could take majorities in both houses of Congress this year.

If the Democrats try to ram through a massively unpopular "immigration reform" measure between now and Election Day, then win or lose that vote, they will be destroyed in November.

Extra Point: Would they try financial reform, immigration reform and cap and tax before election day? They're crazy, but... Really?

UPDATE:  Phillip A. Klein at American Spectator gives a few reasons why they might think it's smart politics.  He makes a few key points, and one that I neglected about the Bush era amnesty battle--that the issue divides Republicans more than it does Democrats.  In the House however, there really aren't many moderate, purplish Republicans left.  But there are several dozen purplish, conservative Democrats in swing districts.  My point is this--win or lose the battle, the Democrats are much more likely to do themselves serious harm than good with this issue in November.